Guarantee Games

[ed. - I was writing this in an airport, and hit the post button right as the last of my flight was boarding. As such, "guarantee" was misspelled in the title. Thanks for letting me know, jerks.]

All bets are off if Nick Sheridan sees significant playing time. What is significant? Let's say...2 drives worth. If Nick Sheridan plays 2 drives worth of football, then all bets are off.

What an odd way to start a post

Agreed. But when you're going out on an already shaky limb, it's best to be sure that the precious little support you do have is firmly entrenched. If the limb is broken to begin with, you can't be at fault when it collapses.

Still not getting it - despite aid of cliche metaphor

Ok, fine. Here we go: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow. I'm saying it, I'm putting it on record, and I'm putting it in print. I'll say it again in italics, for emphasis: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow.

Any particular reason?

I thought that despite the 2nd half implosion, there were several things that Michigan could take away from that Penn State game that were positive. First, you had the unveiling of Minor at tailback, who (as Champ pointed out) had Anthony Scirrotto firmly on his ass being dragged downfield at several points during the game. McGuffie's done a lot of great things with the ball this season, but gaining those crucial extra 3 yards after contact hasn't been one of them. Forget all the BS "Minor runs with anger!" and "Minor runs with purpose!" type exclamations - Minor gets yards after contact, and when your offense struggles with things like "positive yardage" this is a huge, huge asset.

Ok, so you've got a guy who can run the ball. Still not seeing it.

In baseball, it's often the sign of a pitcher's command and "stuff" when he starts throwing first pitch strikes. If a pitcher, especially a young pitcher, can gain an 0-1 count, it allows him to do things with the following pitches that he couldn't do if he had thrown a first pitch ball. Alternatively, a first pitch strike puts the batter on his heels, so to speak, and in instant "protect the plate" mode, lest he go down 0-2.

I hate baseball

None withstanding, when Michigan's offense gains positive yards on first down, it's like throwing that first pitch strike. Go back and look at some of Mgoblog's UFR's. When Michigan picks up positive yardage on first down, the result is a more opened playbook. The defense can't key off on one or two plays that they know are coming in a 2nd and long situation. Just like a young pitcher, this young offense is borderline effective (gasp!) when they gain yards on first down. Now, typically, this wouldn't be something worth following, as good offenses usually get positive yards on first down, but, uh, this isn't a good offense. To wit: in the first half against Penn State, the UFR shows only 3 plays that went for negative yardage. Only one of those plays was on first down. In the 2nd half when Michigan was totally shut-down? There were a total of 6 plays that went for negative yardage, 3 of which were on 1st down. Oh - and Brian stopped charting with 13 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. First half: limited loss of yardage, especially on first down. Result: 17 points. Second half: Lots of negative yardage, more on first down. Result: 0 points. Positive yards, especially on first down, is the lifeblood of this team.

What makes you think that "first half Michigan" will come out all game? Seems to me that there is a good chance that "second half Michigan" is just as plausible.

The short anwer to this is that yes, there is a chance that second half Michigan will rear its ugly head. However, given the data that I've looked at, I think there are several very good factors that will allow first half Michigan to rule the day.

First, Michigan State is allowing just over 6 yards per carry on the season. Combine this with the fact that Michigan has, apparently, just "found" a running game with Minor, and you've got a combination that, in my opinion, leads to positive yards, especially on first down when Rodriguez is presumably going to run the ball with the zone-read-stretch business. Michigan won't score on every drive, but I think that negative plays will be extremely limited given MSU's relative weakness on run-defense.

Ok, so maybe you'll score points, but last time I checked, Michigan's defense wasn't exactly shut down.

True. But look at how Michigan State gets their yards: Javon Ringer runs into the line for about 3 yards, and Brandon Hoyer gets lucky throwing into double coverage. That may be an exaggeration, but Brain Hoyer isn't really that good. He is just shy of 50% completion percentage, and has thrown 4 INT's. Ringer will probably get his yards by carrying the ball 40+ times for 3 yards a pop, and that will probably lead to some long scoring drives. If Michigan's linebackers continue to arm tackle the air surrounding ball carriers, this could be more, but this is the exact offense that Michigan's defense is good at stopping. With Ringer doing his thing, the MSU offense is capable of moving the ball, but when the offense gets into situations in which Ringer doesn't factor as being a threat, they suck. Michigan should be able to put them in those situations, especially early.

One thing I am scared of is the screen game. Michigan has been susceptible to screens going for long TD's all season, and I somehow doubt that D'Antonio has missed that in film...

You still haven't really convinced me

That's because I think this thing is going to be close. Brian at Mgo put into print a feeling that you get sometimes when you're looking at data. It's a "wow, I guess I really have to think this, don't I?" The answer is that, if the data points that way, yes, you do.

Of course, the problem is that data relies on past performance, and that predicting on data alone relies on those past performances manifesting themselves in the current game. This is not always the case.

The bottom line is that I believe that Michigan has a good shot at winning this football game. Given the data I've looked at, I believe Michigan will win this football game.

Whatever dude. You're crazy

Probably.

Seed Sown

Step One: Get Blown Out at Home in Biggest Game of the Year.

Step Two: Lose to a Michigan team that you are perfectly capable of beating handily.

No, this is not turning into a Michigan State blog, but given the coverage last Friday during Spartstravaganza, I would be remiss not to offer a followup. It won't be long, mostly because I have to catch a plane to Denver in an hour, but here it is:

Jim Tressel could have hung 70 if he had wanted to. The Spartan's season, the new coaching staff's legacy, and G0EL Pete's liver hang in the balance. Should MSU come and lay an egg again Michigan this weekend, it's same old Sparty time. You see - it's not necessarily the fact that they lost to Ohio State, but rather what they do this week that will make the difference for this year's Spartan football team.

Sometimes, football exists only in the football box. You hit, you pass, you run, and you go home. Sometimes, however, football gets out of its box and applies itself to life. I'm not particularly good at illustrating when that happens, but I will say this: This week, Michigan State gets to prove that they can overcome adversity. They haven't in the past - it's up to this coaching staff to banish those ghosts.

Vince Lombardi once said "it's not whether you fall, it's whether you get back up."

Spartans, it's your turn.

And finally...

Spartstravaganza wouldn't be complete without this, from Mike Valenti. Hawkeye State of BHGP was kind enough to remind us of it, and points out that it's either the saddest, or funniest saddest thing he's ever heard.

Gallows humor, to be sure.

The audio takes a minute to load because I don't have a better grasp on how to embed audio. Apologies.

Boomp3.com

Enjoy the game tomorrow.

Interview with a Spartan

Not nearly this cool

As a part of our Spartravaganza today, we've got resident blogger of Ground Zero East Lansing here to discuss a little Michigan State. Along with running a fine blog, G0EL Pete is also the only Spartan I know who has a sense of humor regarding Michigan, making him just short of awesome. Unfortunately, I was unable to line up an Ohio State blogger for questioning, partly because I never asked, but mostly because none of them can read. On to the questions!

Ok, we're bound by our contract to ask this question first: Who is the player on Ohio State who scares you the most?

That'd be Beanie. It's more of MSU's experiences with past Big 10 running backs (Thigpen, Greene and Sutton all broke the 100 yard barrier) that factors into this fear than anything else. If Beanie is breaking into the secondary consistently, that's going to allow OSU to go into the Jim Tressel patented "try and hold the ball for all 60 minutes" mode.

Are there any particular nuances about Beanie vs. the Run Defense that we should know about?

Obviously, in the run game, so much of it comes down to blocking along the line. If the OSU OL gets out on their blocks, the guards pull and block the Spartan LB, it's going to lead to big, big gains. Which means of course, big, big trouble in Spartan Stadium.

Defensively, Greg Jones remains my favorite Spartan. We have a tag devoted to him. He's tall, and a really sweet guy, and well, I just really like him :) :) ...How is he doing this year; do you expect him to have a big game this weekend?

Greg Jones has had a solid year. He's currently leading the team in tackles (52) and ranks second in tackles for a loss (5.5). If MSU wins this game on Saturday, I expect him to have a big if quiet day in which he records more than 10 tackles. If he has less than that, it means one of two things: Beanie Wells is running into the secondary or Pryor is throwing it over Jones' head. I'm going to go out on a huge limb and say the former is much more likely to happen than the latter; if Tressel could super-glue the ball into Terrelle's hands, I have no doubt that he would.

Ok, so what is Michigan State's achilles heel defensively? Does OSU have the ability to exploit it, or will MSU be able to cover it up?

In a stunner this year, it's not the secondary. I'd say it's the inability of the front seven to stop the run consistently. OSU definitely has the ability to exploit it, if they don't turn the ball over. MSU is +10 in turnover differential this year, and have stopped many drives in the red zone by causing a fumble or interception (Case in point: Iowa.) The Spartans have been covering up this deficiency by causing turnovers, but if they don't get any against OSU...look out.

Switching gears to the offense, most of the teams that MSU has faced thus far have lacked to ability to stack the line and stop Ringer from killing them. Ohio State has the ability to do just that. How do you expect Hoyer to play should Ringer be slowed?

Well, Ringer has slowed a bit in Big Ten play (his YPC in the last three games: 4.5, 3.6, 3.5). Ohio State definitely has the ability to stack the line. I expect Ringer's production to be much similar to the Iowa game. Iowa had a killer DL, and OSU has killer LBs, so I expect Ringer's YPC in the mid threes. I expect MSU to run it enough to set up the play action and deep pass for Hoyer, who has improved in Big Ten play (I believe he's the third ranked passer in Big 10 games). The thing that can't happen is that he can't play like he did in Columbus last year, where he completed under 50% of his passes and threw for just over 100 yards. I expect Hoyer to be his solid, unspectacular self, throw for about 200 yards on 55-60% passing, with a TD and no picks.

As for the "We'll stop Ringer and let Hoyer beat us" strategy, ask Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern how that went.

Right. Regarding the inevitable tailspin?

I've got two and a half words for you: John L. Smith. Now that Dantonio is the the head coach, MSU is playing much more consistently (for example: I guarantee you that in this OSU game, unlike three years ago, eleven players will take the field for a FG attempt. That was the game most known for "THE PLAYERS ARE PLAYING THEIR TAILS OFF, AND THE COACHES ARE SCREWING IT UP!" That was the tailspin moment for 2005.). The secondary is intercepting balls, penalties are being kept to a minimum, everybody's healthy, and nobody's slapping himself in the face.

I don't believe a loss to OSU will start that tailspin mainly because MSU's next three games are these: @ UM, Wisconsin, and Purdue. In years past, any casual viewer knew that MSU would definitely be outclassed in those games, but not anymore. Albeit, the definition of a tailspin involves a team losing games it should win, and those three games are ones in which the Spartans will be favored. I believe Dantonio has MSU too focused, and too grounded for a tailspin to occur again.

And if it does, I drink myself silly until November 16th, when MSU Basketball stats its season against Idaho. It's easier than you think, Michigan fans. Just start drinking, and don't stop until leaves are on the trees again. (ed.- My favorite line from the entire interview. A Spartan with a sense of humor...love it.)

The Tailspin

Not that tailspin

Michigan State fans know it. The team knows it. The coaches...well...these coaches may not know it viscerally, like the fans and the players, but they know it. They know it's coming.

That's the one

For Michigan State, the football season doesn't really start until that first back-breaking loss is out of the way. I'm not saying this to talk trash, or to have some sort of ROTFLMAO moment. It is simply what years of conditioning has taught the denizens of Spartan Stadium. Sure - they're good now. Just wait. Wait until we blow a huge lead against Northwestern. Wait until Notre Dame comes here and, inexplicably, pulls out a win after losing for the majority of the game. Wait until...and here comes the words every Spartan know and love...next year.

This year, the Spartans have stood up to their past, and owned their opponents. Sure, they lost to Cal, but really - and here's another of my maxims to live by - Big Ten teams should never travel west in the first 3 games of the season. Just nix it right off the schedule. Oregon, Cal, USC - they're all death to Big Ten teams early. So, erasing that loss as much as can be done, the Spartans have gotten considerably further in their schedule without a tailspin inducing loss than before. But now the heavy lifting begins. Michigan State has skated through a relatively easy schedule to this point, facing Northwestern has probably been their biggest challenge. The next three games, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will largely determine their fate in the Big Ten. These three games are all winnable for Michigan State, and are the exact games that Michigan State traditionally loses.

A loss to Ohio State puts the collapse mindset in the forefront of players, fans, and coaches. It turns the following two infinitely winnable games into question marks. If MSU gets blown away by Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin are immediately in doubt. It's been this way since the dawn of time. Michigan State is just one backbreaking loss away from a .500 record, and a berth in a bowl played well before Christmas. It happened with Bobby Williams, it happened with John L. Smith, and it even happened with Spartan Golden Child Nick Saban, who despite his post-Spartan brilliance, was still 2-3 against Michigan.

A win, on the other hand, may prove that Michigan State, as a program, is turning the corner, and that D'Antonio may actually be on to something. A win against Ohio State puts the Michigan and Wisconsin games from "doubtful" to "probable" in terms of winning. It puts the Spartans in the driver's seat for a berth in the Rose Bowl.

Win, and you've got a BCS worthy Big Ten team. Lose, and you've got the same old Sparty struggling to a .500 record. It's probably hyperbole to put this one game in such a context, but given the history, it's not too far a stretch. There is a lot hinging on this game for D'Antonio's boys, but nothing more important than putting the mid-season collapse modus operendi firmly in the rearview.

It's Spart-Eye Day!

Well, we've got on our green hats here at TOGTM HQ, and combined with our scarlet sweatervests, we'd say we look pretty dashing. Pants? Don't need 'em. The eye-gougingly awful Christmas-gone-to-hell combo of Spartan Green and Buckeye Scarlet is enough to ward off even the most wandering of eyes. And if the color combo doesn't do it, our penis will.

We figure D'Antonio woke up this morning in pretty good spirits. His team is, after all, ranked number 20 in the country, and hey, that's not too bad! Maybe even enough to crack a smile at if, you know, D'Antonio ever smiled - which he does not because emotion is a sign of humanity, and humanity is weakness. Nope, D'Antonio will have none of your weakness, human race, it's a sign of poor breeding. But regardless, D'Antonio probably came as close to smiling as he ever has as he made his morning coffee and watched replays of his "Big Ten Recruiting" commercial in which he manages to scare the living daylights out of us. Really, JoePa may have stolen the show on that one with his "weeeeerelinbackeruuuuu" slur, but pay particular attention to D'Antonio next time. Striking fear into the hearts of friends and enemies alike; that's how D'Antonio rolls. In fact, it's printed right there on his coffee mug.

Jim Tressel, on the other hand, woke up this morning as he always does; rising out of his coffin, a quick virgin-blood shake for breakfast, and off to the office - mindful not to cross running water. Jim, being undead, probably whistles a lot. There isn't a joke in there, I just think that he probably whistles with the uncaring attitude that only those who know that they cannot die possess. Jim knows he's coached better football teams but - and I can't stress this enough - being undead has its advantages, and he's managed to seduce his team, poll voters, and his adoring fans that Ohio State is the same Ohio State that has bitchmade the entire conference for nearly a decade. No reason to think that the gravy-train stops this weekend, and by gravy we of course mean blood.

Two coaches, both speeding towards a meeting that will inevitably leave one significantly more angry than they already are. D'Antonio wears his anger on his sleeve; uses it as motivation for players, recruits, and those sitting at home watching BTN commercials. Jim's anger is much more subtle, passive even. But make no mistake, the anger is there, right below the surface of a calm exterior. A storm rages inside Jim Tressel, but the man never shows it, which makes him dangerous. An enraged man can be dealt with because with the rage comes the adrenaline that relegates reasoned thought and calculation to the nether regions of consciousness. Jim never rages. Jim uses his anger to fuel that reasoned thought and calculation, never letting it take him over.

Two styles; two coaches; two teams who, given the opportunity, would love nothing more than to beat the living hell out of the other, within the rules and parameters of the game of football, of course. That opportunity comes tomorrow, and we've got everything you need, Mr. Big Ten fan, to get you ready for it.

Big Ten: Week One

Games you should probably watch:

HIGHLIGHT GAME:

Michigan State vs. Cal (8:00 PM, ABC)

This is without a doubt the premier matchup in week one for the Big Ten. Historically, this is an odd game to call. On the one hand, Big Ten teams have an abysmal record when traveling west of the footprint. On the other, Michigan State has a great track record of beating teams early in the season, only to completely implode, leaving a greenish stain on the carpet where once a #14 ranked team stood. Take a look:

2005: Michigan State starts 4-0, loses to Michigan in the 5th game, finishes season 5-6.

2006: Michigan State starts 3-0, including a win at Pitt, loses to ND, finishes season 4-8.

2007: Michigan State starts 4-0, loses to Wisky in the 5th game, finishes season 7-6.

The trend here is a fast start followed by a rapid decline. MSU always starts strong, but will it be enough to beat Cal? Once again, take a look:

QUARTERBACK:

Hoyer vs. Longshore

Both have nearly identical passing efficiencies, completing nearly 60% of their passes. Hoyer threw for more yards last year (~2700 vs. ~2500), had more TD's (20 to 16), and fewer INTS (11 to 13). Oh, and remember Drew Stanton, the QB Spartan nation fell in love with as the scrappy come from behind winner? Hoyer is better. This would be all well and good, if Longshore was the starter. Unfortunately, he's not, and Tedford has tabbed Kevin Riley as the starter. But wait!

"Tedford said Longshore will still play in the season-opener against Michigan State and the position will continue to be evaluated throughout the season."

So who's playing? What is this? Michigan? Platooning QB's? This ain't good. It's also not good when your returning starter who passed for 3,000+ yards in '06 isn't good enough to beat out his backup.

EDGE: HOYER

RUNNING BACK:

Ringer vs. Best

Oddly, nobody seems to be talking about Javon Ringer this year as a potential game-breaking back in the Big Ten. Caulcrick may have gotten the majority of the attention last year, but Ringer actually carried the bulk of the load for the Spartans. He is one of the better backs in the conference, but it remains to be seen how he will hold up without Caulcrick in there to take the punishing carries.

On Cal's side, they return Jahvid Best, who is an electrifying little guy (185 lbs.) who saw time last year in spelling starter Justin Forsett. While he only carried the ball 29 times, his 7.6 YPC is impressive. According to Scout, Best was the fastest tailback in the '07 class, and his 10.31 in the 100 yard dash back that up. Cal is super-high on this guy, as he is adept at catching the ball out of the backfield, and returning punts. Tedford again:

"We're gonna use him wherever he's the best player...It may be as a returner, it may be in the backfield, it may be in the slot catching balls. He's a very versatile guy in that way."

In a way, this matchup is a microcosm of the Big Ten/Pac-Ten differences. Javon Ringer is going to give you every-down performance, will punish between the tackles, and will move the chains. Jahvid Best is a homerun threat for sure, but has a big question mark over his head regarding toughness, and ability to run inside. He is rather injury prone, bruising his hip against USC last season, and missing the final few days of camp this season with an undisclosed injury. The Big Ten in general has trouble with players like Best, and as such the edge goes to Cal here, but just barely.

EDGE: BEST

WIDE RECEIVERS

Michigan State's wide receivers grabbed the attention of anyone who thought that the departure of Thomas was going to impact the air-attack. Nearly all the receivers were impressive in the spring game, and will only get better as Deon Curry returns from injury. If Hoyer gets better (which he should) this unit will turn heads. Look for freshman Fred Smith to get some time in as well - he was a 4 star to Scout, and chose MSU over the Wolverines. Coaches love him.

Cal's receivers are...ummm...new. Receiving coach Kevin Daft:

"I have confidence they are going to make plays when the ball is thrown their way...Not everyone has experience, but they have a ton of talent. I'm excited to see them play. They've paid their dues and they've worked hard."

Kevin might have confidence, but he's the only one. The only two receivers who have caught passes in an NCAA game are LaReylle Cunningham and Sean Young. They've caught 5 passes total. Combined.

EDGE: MSU

DEFENSE

Michigan State's defense will be good - D'Antonio will see to that. Greg Jones (this blog's patron linebacker) should be an unholy terror at the position, and will be nominated for several awards by the end of the season. The defense should be fast and physical. Last season, they racked up 40 sacks, impressive by anyone's standard. This season, with another year of D'antonio under their belt, they should be more consistent.

Cal's defense sucked last year. There really isn't a nicer way to put it. This year they look to be much improved, as they return nearly everyone. However, returning players who sucked last year doesn't automatically mean they won't suck again this year. The strength of the defense is the linebackers, who should be able to contain Ringer. The defensive line, however, is another story. They have trouble pressuring the QB, and if there is one thing that Hoyer can do, it's stand in the pocket for 7 seconds and find the open receiver. The secondary is a question mark, as sophomore Christ Conte gets the start at Corner.

EDGE: MICHIGAN STATE


Still to come...

Utah vs. Michigan
Illinois vs. Mizzou

Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Awards Show

A few days ago, an email flitted across my screen saying that Lake the Posts (friend [Ed - only friend, judging by recent events], Northwestern blog, good looking chap) was putting on preseason awards based on votes culled from the loose conglomeration known as "The Big Ten Bloggers." Round one would consist of our predictions for final standings, with all-Big-Ten awards to follow. The impetus for creating the awards was to prove that we, the intelligent bloggers of the Big Ten, would do a better job than the MSM at picking final standings, most notably concerning Northwestern. Well...the Northwestern bit didn't quite play out - and the MSM thing remains to be seen, but cruise on over to LtP for a complete wrap up. Notice that we're not in any outlier catagory - which is good. It's not our intensions to ruffle any feathers around here, now is it Champ? [Ed - more on this later]

For those disinclined to link out, here is how the conglomorate voted:

1 - Ohio State
2 - Penn State
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Illinois
5 - Michigan State
6 - Michigan
7 - Iowa
8 - Purdue
9 - Northwestern
10 - Indiana
11 - Minnesota

A pretty fair list, all things considered. According to LtP:

I was surprised at the wide disparity in voting. It isn't often teams get votes ranging 8 spots as a few did, including Northwestern. I was surprised by the Illini and Michigan State outcomes. I haven't bought in to the fact that Dufrene will keep "Ds" in check like Mendenhall for the Illini and also the on-field leadership of J. Leman is a bigger impact from a chemistry standpoint than I think non-Illini followers realize. For Sparty, I simply don't believe they have proven they know how to finish and while Ringer is legit, the loss of Devin Thomas removes an electrifying wrinkle that kept teams off-balance. That being said, my Michigan pick at 3 is completely irrational and goes against my better judgment. Perhaps I'm trying to hype them as I believe, truly believe, we will beat them in the Big House this year and who wants to win against Michigan and have it be a "down" year for them?

Beyond Ohio State, this was a crap shoot. I'm sure that all the BTB will be dissecting their picks today, and it will be interesting to see how the voting went. I know Nittany White Out already has their picks up, and I believe there was some sort of disagreement betwixt us. When I got a text from Champ saying "rant up" I went immediately to the basement to wait out the storm. I should make it clear that Beauford made the picks that went into the voting, with some help from Champ. So the following are not Champ's picks, FWIW.

Beauford's Picks:

1 - Ohio State
Sometimes, stereotypes exist because they're true. Sometimes, the majority is right because they're right - and there's no sense in playing the contrarian. In this case, Ohio State has, by far, the most talented team of anybody in the Big Ten and, IMO, the only team capable of competing for a National Title. On paper - which is the only thing we have to go on at this point - Ohio State should go undefeated in conference. I haven't done the Ridiculously Early Preview on them yet - but I would imagine that "trouble games" exist at Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Do they play Wisconsin this year?

2 - Wisconsin
This was a toss up between Penn State and Wisconsin. My reason for choosing Wisconsin was really foolishly simple: I compared schedules. Penn State's gotta play @ Wisky, @ Ohio State, while Wisconsin gets those games at home. The toughest road test the Badgers are going to face is probably @ Michigan, and with the season Michigan's predicted to have, that formarly ensconsed "L" becomes a toss-up leaning towards Badgers. When the dust settles, the most interesting game in the Big Ten this year may very well be that Oct. 11th rumble between Penn State and Wisconsin.

3 - Penn State
See above

4 - Michigan
5 - Michigan State
6 - Northwestern

Here's my rationale: Michigan State is probably better than Michigan this year. On paper. I know that I said that paper is the only thing we have to go on, but that doesn't apply for Michigan State. You see, we make up the rules as we go here... The problem is that Michigan State is still Michigan State, despite hiring a coach that looks like Belechik and glares alot. The end result for the Spartans last year was...the same as it always is: one game within .500, a demoralizing loss to Big Brother, and a bowl defeat. Every year I pen Michigan State as being vastly improved, capable of challenging for the Big Ten, and probable winners against Michigan. Every year, I'm elated at the results (which are pretty much the exact opposite of my predictions). This year, every one of the aforementioned rings true. They should be improved (see Hoyer and Receiving Corp), they should present as much a challenge to Ohio State as anybody, and they should beat Michigan. But I'm tired of getting burned on that - so until they prove to me otherwise, Michigan State will be a middle of the road Big Ten team incapable of beating quality opponents in conference. I'm begging the Spartans to prove me wrong.

Call it homerism for my honorary favorite team this year, or call it a favor to this blog's only friend Lake the Posts, but I am buying the idea that this year's Wildcats can make some noise. For many of the reasons Champ outlined in his preview, I don't think they will challenge for the title, but I do expect them to beat some teams that they traditionally don't (including Michigan?). They've got to get better at scoring points, and they've got to shore up their defense, especially line-play. Hopefully two new coordinators can accomplish that. Northwestern gets themselves bowl eligible, and there is much celebrating in Evanston this year.

Which brings us to Michigan. Here is why I believe Michigan is not this year's Notre Dame:

1) Notre Dame has been mediocre-to-bad the past decade. Sure, they had a good stretch there with Brady Quinn's senior season, but a closer look at said season reveals a lot of smoke and mirrors. Their schedule that year was brutally easy, with losses coming to Michigan and USC - the two quality opponents they faced. The schallacking they took at the hands of LSU in the Sugar Bowl was a surprise to no one paying attention. Every time Notre Dame has had to reload, they've failed miserably.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been good-to-great the past decade, proving time and again that the talent that Carr recruits is capable of stepping in and filling holes left by departing players. When Henson jilted the team in favor of Baseball, and a half-cocked Navarre had to step in, Michigan still went 8-4. Navarre ended up breaking several passing records en route to a career only remembered as mediocre. When he was done, it was Henne for 4 years. The line of skill positions that have follwed the "had success, graduated/drafted, then been replaced with success" time-line is non-stop. The hiccup with an unseasoned Navarre is the best example that I can think of of a player stepping into a skill position and sucking for a year. Receivers, tailbacks, and (by and large) quarterbacks have been one star after another for as long as I can remember. Non-skill positions tend to be harder to judge, but even when Michigan has had to replace entire defenses, the results have been bowl-eligible 8 to 9 win teams. This has not been the case at Notre Dame: see Jimmy Clausen's efforts this past year, or their attempts at replacing their running back who bolted early. If Lloyd Carr was coaching this team, you would have them penned for another 8 win season. Just because Rodriguez doesn't have the exact personel to run "his offense" doesn't mean the talent isn't there to run "an offense" capable of winning.

Plain and simple: Michigan has proven they can weather the storm when it comes to replacing graduating/drafted players. Notre Dame has not.

2) Notre Dame's coaching has been suspect at best. Despite the blinding light off of Weis's multiple super-bowl rings (and the subsequent reflection from the fried chicken grease on his chin), the man has done virtually nothing in terms of beating top-notch oppoenents during his tenure at ND. He came to ND unproven, and is rapidly proving himself to be a bad head coach. Rodriguez may be untested at Michigan, but he is at least a proven collegiate head coach with a track record of success.

3) The cupboard is not bare at UM. When Rodriguez took over the program at WVU, he was working with athletes who were mostly passed on by big-time programs. It took him a few years to build up the base of players that he could work with, which explains his dismal first-year records. I will wager that the level of athlete that he is inheriting at UM - previous starter or not - is far higher than what he inherited at WVU. Thus, I believe that this team will be ready to compete at a higher level than many think this year.

4) Michigan had moderate to great success running zone-left long bomb offense. They never had to get tricky because they didn't have to. Now, with the departures on offense and defense, Michigan has to get tricky, and they have the best coach in the game at doing that. Combine Rodriguez's willingness to run plays not designed around a punishing left tackle with the fact that nobody has any film or any clue about what this team is going to look like, and you get a lot of surprised opponents. I fully expect Michigan to lose their fair share of ball games this year, but I also expect that they will catch quite a few teams with their pants down. Everybody and their mother knew what ND was going to come with last year - and ND played the part beautifully. Nobody knows what Michigan's coming with this year, which is an advantage.

5) We've got Vegas on our side! The folks who are actually paid to make predictions with millions riding on them say that there are only 9 teams with better odds at a National Championship than Michigan. That's right folks, they said National.

Also - Michigan gets Sparty, Northwestern, and Illinois at home.

7 - Illinois

Speaking of Illinois, I think that they will be a dangerous team, but that the loss of Mendenhall is going to hurt a ton. Juice can't throw; it's that simple. If the Illini can't produce a consistantly awesome rusher to replace Mendenhall, then I can't see how that offense is going to score points. Mix that with an already shaky defense losing an awesome 'backer, and a competent safety (Kevin Mitchell), and throw in a dose of suspect in game coaching of the Zooker, and you get a 7th place Big Ten team. The Illini may still have some shine to them from last year's Rose Bowl team, and I think the BTB final vote reflects that shine. The Illini won't suck this year - but they will take a step backwards.

8 - Purdue
There isn't much to say here. Tiller's last season, and "meh" collection of players coming of a mediocre season last year, etc. Purdue will beat the low-end Big 10 teams, and will lose to the top-end. In full disclosure, there wasn't a whole lot going on mentally when I slotted Purdue in at 8th.

9 - Iowa
With apologies to BHGP, I don't see this year's Iowa squad as contending for anything this year. Depending on their OOC results, they could get themselves bowl eligible, and (in hindsight) are probably deserving of a better showing than 9th.

10 - Minnesota
They were a frieght train of suck last year, and I don't expect this year to be much different. Next year, you could see them sneaking up into the middle of the conference given the mildly awesome level of recruiting they've been able to sustain. But not this year.

11 - Indiana
Loss of top flight talent? Check
Potential loss of field-equalizing QB? Check
Last place finish in the Big 10? Check


Wrap Up

We weren't really that much different than the combined results. We seem to be in disagreement about Illinois and Michigan, but other than those two, we seem to be right on the mainstream money. Tomorrow, I'll have a post comparing our little vote to those of the MSM and preview mags.

Nichol Decides to Recommit.

Keith Nichol, now former Oklahoma QB has decided to transfer back to his home state of Michigan. Next season he will practice with the Michigan State Spartans, and will compete for the starting job in '09 when Brian Hoyer's eligibility runs out. Nichol had originally verballed to MSU before switching to Oklahoma, only to be found in the unenviable position of "older guy sitting behind a younger starter." His decision to transfer has been known for months, but his destination has just been revealed. He was highly thought of in High School (4 star scout, #22 position ranking), and should be in the mix to win the starting job in '09. From what little I know of him, he's in the (surprise!) Drew Stanton mold of "kinda quick, kinda good arm, kinda makes good decisions, kinda wins more than he loses."

In all, a good pickup for MSU, especially because it was clear that Michigan was interested in his services as well.

Spartan's '08; same as '07

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off base:
I don't know what counts as "harping" [Yes you do, you wrote the question - ed.] but one thing that the media won't forget was Brian Hoyer seemingly singlehandedly losing the bowl game last year to Boston College. Not only will the media not forget that, but fans won't either. Hoyer will be under enormous pressure to shed his turnover prone ways and become more like Drew Stanton.

Stanton

After all, Stanton was the hugely (and incorrectly) moxified quarterback that led the Spartan attack (also incorrectly) during the 2006 season. He was largely treated kindly by the MSM and, IIRC, was predicted to be the best thing in the Big Ten during the '06 season by Herbstreit himself. For those keeping score at home, that was the year that Smith won the Heisman. Suffice to say, people thought Stanton was pretty darn good, and this year they're expecting Hoyer to be in that catagory.

What if I told you he already is?

To wit:

Stanton - '06

Games: 11
Attempts: 269
Completions: 164
Pct: 61%
Yards: 1807
Yards/Attempt: 6.7
INT: 10
TD: 12
Rating: 124.68
Yards/Game: 164.3

Hoyer - '07

Games: 13
Attempts: 376
Completions: 223
Pct: 59.3%
Yards: 2725
Yards/Attempt: 7.2
INT: 11
TD: 20
Rating: 131.88
Yards/Game: 209.6

Put that in the blender, and what do you come up with? Hoyer played 2 more games than Stanton did, but uh...yeah...statistically speaking, he was a better QB. The media and fans may be wishing for the days of Stanton, but they've got a better QB in Hoyer. Either Stanton wasn't that good, or Hoyer isn't getting credit. I lean somewhere in the middle - meaning I don't lean at all. Stanton wasn't that good, and Hoyer isn't that bad - but Spartan fans won't realize that. They'll just keep wistfully drifting back to the days when Drew Stanton was prowling the sideline, championing the offense, lapping up undue media attention, and generally leading the Spartans nowhere in particular. But boy - did he look good doing it.


Better than Stanton


One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success:
Last season, the Spartans forged respectability in the face of a 3-5 conference record, and an 0-4 record against ranked teams. They almost sealed the deal against a good BC team in their bowl game, but came up about 5 turnovers short. The Spartans, in order shed the Same old Sparty label, must (MUST, I tell you!) win against ranked opponents, and win against conference opponents. Last season, in August/September, the Spartans were 4-1. In October, November, and December (you know, the games that are in conference, and a little tougher) they were 3-5. The Spartans have shown they can win against the Convents of Division 1. They need to show they can win against actual football teams. Beating Michigan this year would go a long way towards proving that point.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball:
Offense: As I alluded to in the preview, the 3 headed monster of Bri'Jahuu Ringcrick will have to come to play if the Spartans want to, you know, beat a football team. But the unit that is getting some mild attention in the off season, and the unit that directly impacts the perceived weakness at QB is that of the receiving corp. Mark Dell is the returning starter from that squad, and as such, he deserves special mention here. If the receivers are better, the QB is better, and that could put Michigan State in that "annoyingly dangerous" category into which we stuffed Illinois.

Defense: Greg Jones was a freshman linebacker who started all 13 games last season, and notched a team leading 78 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 8.5 TFL's. That was his freshman season. With natural progression, and D'Antonio's penchant for, you know, playing defense, he is going to be a monster this year.


Monster.

This from the USA Today:
LB Greg Jones could be on the verge of becoming a star. The sophomore played both outside and in the middle in Michigan State's spring game, but clearly looks more comfortable in the middle. He had 78 tackles as a freshman and is poised to take a big leap on a defense that could be much better than people expect.

Area that scares you as an opponent:
Greg Jones is legit. Bri'Jahuu Ringcrick should be much improved. I can't believe I'm saying it, but the Michigan State Spartans are actually a pretty good paper team this year, but paper's thin and can cut. We've been saying that Michigan State should be good for years. The area that scares me as an opponent is the area right between the Spartan's ears. If they can get out of the underachieving funk left by John L. and Bobby Williams, they could be a pretty legit team.

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent:
An oft overlooked stat in College Football is, IMO, the 3rd down conversion. How good is your squad at staying on the field? The Spartans? Not so good. They ranked 9th last season in the Big 10, converting just over 40% of their chances. If the Spartans can't sustain drives, they don't score points. And if they don't score points, they don't win games. Bring a stout defense, and the Spartans should be there for the taking.

Random factor that you think will come into play this season:
If they're going to make a legitimate run at a Big Ten title, or at least a respectable bowl game, this is the year to do it. Michigan should be down, the schedule isn't that tough, and Illinois proved last year that Ohio State is beatable - even in seemingly overwhelming circumstances. It's not a tangible factor, but the Spartans have to shake the S.O.S. (same old Sparty) mentality. If they're able to do that, a respectable New Years Day bowl is well within grasp.

Overall Record:
This, like Iowa, could be all over the place. I'm going with 8-4 with losses coming against OSU, @Michigan, Wisconsin, and @Penn State. You could substitute Michigan with Cal, but State is typically uncharacteristically good at the beginning of the season, with the meltdown occurring while ranked #13 in the 5th week.

Final Big Ten Record:
Well, those 4 losses I've got pinned put them at 4-4 in conference, fighting with Iowa for the 6th spot.

Bowl Destination
Michigan State has the tools to be playing post New Years, but until they prove me wrong, I'm saying they'll head to the Champs or Motor City.

Champ's got his nose in a book and his eye towards the golf course, so we're giving him a pass on MSU. He may weigh in, but in shortened version. He's also resting for the Michigan preview, which I'm sure will prompt the Heavenly Angels to break out a rousing rendition of Hail to the Victors.

UPDATE: So, uhhhhh, Caulcrick's not around next year. Do what Champ says, and insert "random big dude who runs freakin right at you really hard" wherever you see Caulcrick's name. I apologize.

This is Spartahhhhhhhh

It's an exciting time to be a Spartan fan. First, the movie "300" came out, prompting all who weren't squirming uncomfortably at the site of those airbrushed 18 packs (6 pack? Please. This is Spartahhhhh!) to wonder how long it would take MSU to incorporate an aspect of the movie into their "pump up the crowd" stadium promotion. The answer? Not long:


Epic.

Please note that, while I'm sure motivating, the "Spartan Yell" does not actually stop the opposing team from gaining that first down. (ht: mgoblog)

Next in the year of the Spartans came the Nintendo Wii's decision to put Sparty on their cover.


Also epic.


From a non-football standpoint, Michigan State had an awesome year! Actual football? Not so much.

2007 Season in One Word: Sigh. No really - that's the word. There's a reason they're called "same old Sparty" and it stems from the fact that, every year, they win 4 games in a row, only to finish a disappointing 7-6, 3-4 in conference. Oh, there were flashes, but they were fleeting, few, and far between. In the finale, on a national stage, the Spartans had a chance to silence their critics against Matt Ryan and the Boston College Eagles, who had been ranked as high as #2 in season. What happened? Michigan State outplayed the Eagles in every single aspect of the game, unless you count the 5 turnovers Spartan QB Brain Hoyer was responsible for. When you account for those, the performance turned into a classic "Sparty noooooo!" and a collective "sigh" from East Lansing. Potential? It was there. Execution? Not so much.

2008 Tangibles:

Schedule

8/30 @ California
9/06 Eastern Michigan
9/13 Florida Atlantic
9/20 Notre Dame
9/27 @ Indiana
10/04 Iowa
10/11 @ Northwestern
10/18 Ohio State
10/25 @ Michigan
11/01 Wisconsin
11/08 Purdue
11/22 @ Penn State

Coach


Mark Dantonio enters his second season as Michigan State Head Coach. Dantonio has learned from both Saban (at MSU as an assistant) and Tressel (DC at OSU). Yikes - that's a scary combo. If he's as dirty as Saban and as slick as Tressel, he'll be a force to be reckoned with in the future. Of course, judging by his propensity to make fun of the stature of college athletes, he's inherited neither.

Returning Playmakers

Brian Hoyer returns...uhhh...nevermind.

Jehuu Caulcrick...erm...uhhh...

Javon Ringer! Kinda? No?

Here's the deal: In any given game, one of the aforementioned players can go off big time and hurt you. But, due to inconsistency that is part and parcel with the Spartan experience, the other two will invariably suck. Thus, the lone returning playmaker for Michigan State is one man named Bri'Jahuu Ringcrick.

Champ: Get your nose out of the books and tell us what to expect from Sparty.