Luckless, Hapless, and Star Crossed...

Allow me to begin with the following: un-fucking-believable.

I am going to attempt to do the rest of this sans profanity and in the most level headed way possible.

For those who simply look at the score of this week’s meeting between Michigan and Notre Dame, you will likely make a number of incorrect assumptions. The way this game played out had to be seen in its entirety to be believed. Oh sure, it’s a time honored tradition to scream about officiating and poor calls costing you football games, and there was some of that, but the way that Michigan lost this football game simply cannot be appreciated by watching a bottom line or unfolding a paper and glancing at the headline.

A quick look at the numbers:

- Michigan threw for 229 yards compared to Notre Dame’s 147.
- Michigan rushed for 158 yards compared to Notre Dame’s 113.
- Total offense: Michigan 387, Notre Dame 260.
- Michigan picked up 21 first downs to Notre Dame’s 14.
- Michigan punted 4 times, Notre Dame 6.
- Turnovers? Michigan 6, Notre Dame 2… of the six Michigan turnovers, I’m willing to say that Notre Dame forced possibly one of those gaffs. Feel free to argue otherwise if you actually watched the football game.

Michigan outplayed ND in all facets of the football game today, except in holding on to the football and benefiting from officiating. Go ahead and put a check mark next to ND in those two categories…

Tomorrow you won’t hear that Michigan completely outplayed the Irish. No, what you’ll hear is “whoa they’re going to suck” and other highly enlightened commentary. You won’t hear that Sam McGuffie and Steven Threet gashed ND all day long (the passing game looked infinitely better than the first two weeks, and imagine if they had properly called the 50 yd TD to Matthews!). Tomorrow you won’t hear that Michigan gifted ND three TDs, that the refs took away one from the Maize and Blue, or that Michigan gift-wrapped two turnovers (neither forced) inside the Irish 10 yard line… one of which was questionable at best (Kevin Grady’s forward progress was stopped at the three yardline and yet he somehow “fumbled” on the five).

Make no mistake, as a Wolverine fan I’m disappointed, and I’m mad, but I’m not worried, ours was the better football team today. Michigan’s offense continues to look better each week, the defense wasn’t gashed, and short of a missed a tackle and a blown coverage, they controlled the Irish offense. This Michigan team will be bashed for the next two weeks by idiots in the media and fans who don’t understand the game of football, but outside of terrible breaks and terrible calls, I can’t think of much to be worried about.

Notre Dame had to “drive” all of 26yards for their first two touchdowns, both of which occurred in the first four minutes of the first quarter. This was brought about by a lack of Michigan’s kick returners willingness to catch the football… and no, it had not started raining at this point. Neither turnover was forced, with Brandon Minor dropping a backwards pass, and then Mike Shaw letting the next kickoff go directly off of his chest.

Quickly down 14 points, the Michigan offense stalled and was forced to turn the ball back over to ND. Errrrrr wait… let’s rewind quickly and look at a great catch that will never be remembered: Greg Matthews was fully extended and hauled in a perfect throw from Steven Threet for a 50 yard touchdown, the ball never bobbled, his hands clearly placed between it and the ground… and yet the ref with no view of the play calls it incomplete and the review (in one of the quickest of all time) also somehow sees incomplete despite obvious evidence to the contrary. Seven points gone. This defies explanation.

What happened next will be one of the few Notre Dame accomplishments that can actually be credited to Notre Dame… but not without some quick help with“pass interference” on a perfectly defended pass by Donovan Warren. To Notre Dame’s credit, they went right back to the well and caught Stevie Brown out of position and torched the Michigan secondary for a nice touchdown. Again, take note, it’s one of the few times ND did anything that they can take credit for instead of handing it to the referees or Michigan’s lack of luck.

Notre Dame’s next touchdown came via two missed tackles on a four yard out that was nicely turned into a 60 yard gain, again, I will give the Irish credit for this drive. That’s 14 points I will happily tip my cap to them and say “you outplayed us ND”. Halftime found a Michigan team who spotted ND a 21 point lead down only 11...

What happened in the rain in the second half can only be described as Irish luck… Grady “fumbles” as Michigan is driving to cut the lead to 28-24. Steven Threet drops the snap, it is kicked directly to a streaking ND defender who heads directly to the endzone. Nick Sheridan makes a perfect throw to Carson Butler, who declines to put his hands on the ball (inside the ND 10 again) and it is intercepted… This can be described as nothing more than a comedy of errors, gaffes, and breaks that all went Notre Dame’s way. Of ND’s five touchdowns, ONE consisted of an actual drive… one. Unbelievable. Michigan’s D gave up one sustained drive and one big play… that’s it. Don’t believe me? Notre Dame’s second half on offense? Punt, punt, punt, punt, turnover on downs, INT, punt. Dominating indeed.

Read on! So in summary, ND’s scores for the game:

0-7: Brandon Minor drops a backwards pass (fumble) and ND puts together a masterful 3 play, 11 yard TD drive.
0-14: Shaw fumbles the ensuing kickoff. This time ND puts together a real prolonged march of a drive: 14 yards and 3 plays later? TD.
0-21: Michigan turns the ball over on downs and the 2nd play, ND completes a long TD pass following a ridiculously horrible defensive PI call on Warren.
10-28: The one and only drive of the football game: 87 yards down the field and score on a 1yd TD run.
17-35: Threet fumbles the snap and in the ensuing melee the ball is kicked directly to an ND player who races it 35 yards for a TD.

This was hardly a Wolverine struggle against a superior opponent, hardly a loss that leaves me hanging my head at the ineptness of my team. Michigan thoroughly outplayed Notre Dame today. Notre Dame capitalized on gifts from both the officials and from the Maize and Blue as you should, but is this cause for incredible alarm in Ann Arbor? No. Michigan’s offense has looked better each week, Sam McGuffie and Threet played GREAT on the road. The breaks went against Michigan today, and we paid dearly for all of them. Notre Dame took advantage and stole a football game despite being wholly outplayed.

That said, this football team will be just fine. Threet played a great football game today, Sam McGuffie did what we've all seen him do to highschool kids down in Texas, and the Michigan offense moved the football all day long. The defense gave up one sustained drive and one big play... There's a lot to take away from even a horrifyingly disappointing game like today. Short of the unforced turnovers, Michigan wins this football game going away.

Two weeks to get ready for the Badgers and the conference push. Disappointing start? Yes. I was horrendously wrong regarding my predictions to the start of this season (see, even I can admit it), but I still like what I’m seeing out of this football team. I have every confidence in Coach Rodriguez’s ability, and I think we're going to continue to see this team gel and improve on the execution that had plagued it so badly in the first two weeks of this season.

Also, EEEEEEEEEEEEEEE MCGUFFIE!!!

GO BLUE!

PS - For those who thought that Michigan / ND would be an abomination of football, I direct your attention over to Auburn / Miss State: 3-2 final... real pitchers duel over there.

Examining the Company Line...

A few friends and I were discussing this interesting point the other day, and I think it's a fun hypothetical:

If Lloyd Carr were still the head coach in Ann Arbor, with Mike DeBord and Co. still around, what would be the expected record for this upcoming season? No other changes in the team here, Mallet is still gone, Arrington and Manningham too. You really think the "experts" would be predicting the same season of woe for the Wolverines? Let's save that for just a moment.

For all those doom and gloomers regarding the offense, I invite you to look back at our offensive output over the past several years (highs in bold). Not exactly overpowering in any way, shape, or form...

2007 - 27.2 points/game, 68th in total offense (dear God...) ---> 9-4
2006 - 29.2 points/game, 38th in total offense ----> 11-2
2005 - 28.75 points/game, 55th in total offense ----> 7-5
2004 - 30.83 points/game, 46th in total offense ----> 9-3
2003 - 35.4 points/game, 15th in total offense ----> 10-3 (oh what could've been... @!#% punt formation)
2002 - 27.7 points/game, 52nd in total offense ----> 10-3
2001 - 27.5 points/game, 70th in total offense ----> 8-4
2000 - 33.9 points/game, 11th in total offense ----> 9-3

West Virginia under Rodriguez?

2007 - 39.6 points/game, 15th in total offense ----> 11-2
2006 - 38.8 points/game, 5th in total offense ----> 11-2
2005 - 32.0 points/game, 50th in total offense ----> 11-1
2004 - 30.0 points/game, 26th in total offense ----> 8-4
2003 - 28.9 points/game, 72nd in total offense ----> 8-5
2002 - 30.4 points/game, 18th in total offense ----> 9-4
2001 - 21.3 points/game, 80th in total offense ----> 3-8

Now then, I can foresee a lot of people pointing to that 2001 number in Rodriguez's first season at WVA and going berserk... but take a moment and glance up at our offensive outputs for the '01 campaign in Ann Arbor... just about 6 points more a game and an offense that was marginally better ranked (although undoubtedly 10x more talented than what WVA had at the time) and you get 6 more wins and 5 less losses. Does anyone here want to try to argue that Michigan has had less talent than West Viriginia over any of this time period? Anyone? Not me, that's for sure. Is it not at all conceivable that PERHAPS, just MAYBE, Rich Rodriguez knows what he's doing from a game planning, X's and O's, and play calling point of view? You know, the kind of ability that means he doesn't exactly HAVE to have a Pat White on his team for that team's offense to be functional?

But what about the pre-Rodriguez WVA team? Perhaps that offense was solid and capable, and his new system set them back until they got the hang of it? Here we go:

2000 WVA - 27.9 points/game, 73rd in total offense ----> 6-5

So, um... not exactly the most catastrophic drop in the world eh? Even with the most complex, highly finnicky, player-specific-offense-that-man-ever-created?

Every time someone starts going all "woe is us" or "hahahahaha" regarding this year's offense and completely ignores the following, it drives me crazy:

1. The offense here has hardly ever been lights out over the past 8 seasons, despite being choked with talent across the field more often than not. It has been mostly slaps to the forehead infuriating with momentary bursts of brilliance. If you could've taken a snapshot of each and every Michigan fan's expression after the opening drive of the bowl game this year you would've seen two things: A) Joy and B) Rage... we had been waiting for that for YEARS.

2. Our returning defense certainly holds the potential to be a solid unit, which, might occasionally figure into an outcome come fall.

3. For AGES we Michigan fans have howled about the play calling, absolutely SCREAMED about it, I'm one of the chief perpetrators believe me... I can honestly say that the removal of DeBord from the press-box already has this new offense off on the right foot.

So now that we have a guy who's regarded as one of the top in the game at scheming and game planning and running an offense... why are we all jumping off bridges because we have an inexperienced offense? Isn't it conceivable that less talent (for Michigan standards) with better play-calling and game-planning and conditioning somewhat evens the equation out a bit?? You think the Michigan advantage in talent might be worth one more TD a game than what the Mountaineers had in '01? Because if you do, you're looking at an offense that is right on the average of the past eight units we've put on the field numbers-wise. A thought worth considering when you're lobbing out predictions of a record that hasn't found the books in over 40 years.

When I talked about this on one of the boards I post on, I stated that I don't care one iota about those who go on and on about running "his system", the important point (as I see it) is that the guy will try to put the ball in his play-makers' hands and if the past is any sort of indicator, he'll be aggressive about it... something we've, as Michigan fans, all been BEGGING for over the past decade. What people seem to miss is that you don't have to run the exact Pat White WVA offense for things to work. Let's just imagine if Michigan decided to relentlessly use it's best players... the few times that they took this approach, the results have been pretty nice: ND '06... Florida '08... OSU '03... MSU '02, etc. You could also look at any drive late in a game where they found themselves in a dire situation and were literally forced to open up the offense... another angering trend that had many of us going "duh".

It's not exactly a huge stretch to say that we've gone X-3 and X-4 for ages running half-back traps nearly exclusively to the left side and then throwing over the top 3 times a game to an all-world receiver. Sure that's a generalization, but it's not like you've walked away from many Michigan games going "whew, we just out game-planned them there"! All of the jokes about running to the left on first down and wide receiver screens behind the line of scrimmage on 3rd and 7 aren't actually jokes, they've been tried and true predictions over the years. Imagine how Steve Breaston might have developed with someone in place who might have had a better idea of how to use him?

When Michigan finally went for broke this New Year's Day, the result was the highest bowl offensive output in a century... Suffice to say that aggression when combined with talent can have some nice after-effects. Now listen, I fully understand that we don't have that offense this year, and I'm not trying to argue that we wil not miss a beat. BUT, Rodriguez will have players at his disposal who have the ability to do things with the football. His job is to figure out how best to get them the ball in the best position to do something with it, you know, take advantage of things the defense will give... He happens to be pretty good at that sort of thing if you glance back at his extensive track record. He also has a chance of finding a few solid football players out there in Maize and Blue. The running back position is as deep this season as it has been in years, despite those outside the program not being familiar with all of the names, Michigan still trots out a number of wideouts who will be dangerous, and I think it will be interesting to see how we integrate Carson Butler into the offense at the TE spot.

Where people seem to get stuck is in thinking that because Rodriguez "can't run his system" they automatically assume that he can't field a competent offense in any regard. Folks, it doesn't take a ton of complexity to put points on the board. When I look at the defensive potential along with the schedule, I don't see a lot of instances where Michigan will have to score 35 a game to win. Perhaps I am mistaken?

So back to my original question, do you think the predictions for the upcoming season would be as universally dour if the old staff were in place? Allow me to answer for you: the answer would be no. Predictions would be middling, likely another 4 loss season sort. I can draw a lot of parrallels between this upcoming year and the Wolverines' 2001 campaign. You may recall 2001 as a year of utter dispair heading into the season, Michigan had just graduated Anthony Thomas, and later in the spring lost Drew Henson and David Terrell to early jumps to the MLB and NFL... That season represents the low water-mark offensively over the last eight years... 70th overall... the result? 8-4.

For years the accusation has been that Michigan has gotten by on superior talent... I don't think it would be unreasonable to say that the last coaching staff had an approach that focused more on perfecting execution than trying to seek out any and all weakness in the opponent and how to attack them. I imagine if we boiled down the approach, it was essentially: "We have the better players, if we play well, we will beat you". That will not work this season, and I think it's also safe to say that Rodriguez has NEVER relied on that approach. He has been forced to figure out how to win with lesser talent, how to attack opponents and create matchups that favor his team, how to plan and prepare his teams... he's proven this, and it's because of this that I think that he'll be capable of fielding an offense that will be better than the "miserable" that has been the company line all off-season. No, the huge talent advantage won't be as apparent this year, but the coaching advantage will be, and I think many are overestimating the effects of one, and underestimating the impact of the other.

BTB Preseason Awards Show is Like Hiter

Just like the Boston Celtics and Hitler, the BTB's preseason awards show marches along, blindly destroying everything in its path, except instead of Poland, it's the aspirations of every Big Ten school except Ohio State.

The awards, kindly hosted by our friends Lake the Posts, now move from preseason team standings to preseason All-Conference performers, first and second team. Every blogger submitted their picks for first team all-conference, and LTP is currently tabulating the results, and throwing together a coherent (hopefully) output. In an attempt at spreading content out, we'll dole out our own picks for 1st team Offense today, Defense tomorrow, vicious attack on any idiotic picks on Friday.

Cruise over to Lake the Posts tomorrow morning for the consensus 1st and 2nd teams.

BEAUFORD'S 1st TEAM ALL CONFERENCE OFFENSE

QB: C.J. Bacher NW
RB: Chris Wells OSU
RB: Javon Ringer MSU
WR: Arrelious Benn IL
WR: Brian Robiskie OSU
WR: Brian Hartline OSU
TE: Travis Beckem WI
OT: Alex Boone OSU
OT: Gerald Cadogan PSU
OG: Jon Skinner OSU
OG: Steve Schilling UM
C: Ryan McDonald IL

Eyebrow Raisers:

The biggest and baddest of the "huh?" picks here is C.J. Bacher at QB. I know, I know - he plays for a Northwestern, and no, this isn't a shameless attempt to get linked by LTP. Take a look at his stats from last year:

304 YPG (1st in conference)
19 TD's (6th in conference)
19 INT's (Um...worst in conference)
3656 total yards (2nd in conference)
61% completion (3rd in conference)

That, my friends, is a rather impressive junior year. Take into account that Northwestern has a new OC, as well as the natural improvement anyone not named "Henne" makes from junior to senior seasons, and C.J. could have an incredible "why the heck is this guy at Northwestern" type season. If he does anything in the way of leading Northwestern over a "traditional powerhouse" then the media will latch onto him like that crazy freshman girl you "dated" in college. Since I'm overweight and live in my mom's basement, I can only assume that metaphor fits. Also of note is the fact that there is a relative dearth of talent at the QB position in the Big 10 this year. Boeckman and Hoyer can both expect to have better team success than Bacher, but my guess is that Bacher will have better stats when it's all said and done. Oh - and Juice doesn't have his Mendenhall shaped blanket anymore - so I count him out as well.

The other eyebrow raiser in Steve Schilling on the line. I already know what you're saying: Isn't he the kid who got abused last year by nearly everyone he lined up against? The short answer is yes. The long answer is that he is an athletic beast who will prosper under the new tutelage of the Rich Rod staff. He is also in sink or swim territory as the most experienced dude on the entire Michigan line. I'll be the first to admit that this is a stretch, and he's got to do everything right. But if he does, he's going to be a manbearfreak.

Fringe Picks

I will also admit that I don't know much about the offensive lines of any team not named Michigan, so some of these picks may indeed turn out to be total crap. Cadogen and Skinner are picks based on experience and team-success. They are 2 of a bevy of options here.

My guess is that Robiskie and Hartline won't both be on the final cut - but one will emerge as Boeckman's go-to-guy. I thought they both deserved mention, so I created a 3rd WR spot.

Well Duh

Wells and Ringer are both obvi. Benn's big-play potential will put him on the first team despite the fact that I have zero confidence in his QB's throwing ability. If Juice turns into a decent thrower this year, it will be because of Benn's brilliance. Beckem is awesome and will be one of Wisky's primary targets this year. Anytime a tight end turns himself into a primary offensive weapon, they're really really good. McDonald is on the Rimington Award watch list, and Alex Boone is one of those Buckeyes who could have easily went to the NFL, but returned to get curb-stomped by the SEC one more year (but only after beating Michigan. Again.).

Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Awards Show

A few days ago, an email flitted across my screen saying that Lake the Posts (friend [Ed - only friend, judging by recent events], Northwestern blog, good looking chap) was putting on preseason awards based on votes culled from the loose conglomeration known as "The Big Ten Bloggers." Round one would consist of our predictions for final standings, with all-Big-Ten awards to follow. The impetus for creating the awards was to prove that we, the intelligent bloggers of the Big Ten, would do a better job than the MSM at picking final standings, most notably concerning Northwestern. Well...the Northwestern bit didn't quite play out - and the MSM thing remains to be seen, but cruise on over to LtP for a complete wrap up. Notice that we're not in any outlier catagory - which is good. It's not our intensions to ruffle any feathers around here, now is it Champ? [Ed - more on this later]

For those disinclined to link out, here is how the conglomorate voted:

1 - Ohio State
2 - Penn State
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Illinois
5 - Michigan State
6 - Michigan
7 - Iowa
8 - Purdue
9 - Northwestern
10 - Indiana
11 - Minnesota

A pretty fair list, all things considered. According to LtP:

I was surprised at the wide disparity in voting. It isn't often teams get votes ranging 8 spots as a few did, including Northwestern. I was surprised by the Illini and Michigan State outcomes. I haven't bought in to the fact that Dufrene will keep "Ds" in check like Mendenhall for the Illini and also the on-field leadership of J. Leman is a bigger impact from a chemistry standpoint than I think non-Illini followers realize. For Sparty, I simply don't believe they have proven they know how to finish and while Ringer is legit, the loss of Devin Thomas removes an electrifying wrinkle that kept teams off-balance. That being said, my Michigan pick at 3 is completely irrational and goes against my better judgment. Perhaps I'm trying to hype them as I believe, truly believe, we will beat them in the Big House this year and who wants to win against Michigan and have it be a "down" year for them?

Beyond Ohio State, this was a crap shoot. I'm sure that all the BTB will be dissecting their picks today, and it will be interesting to see how the voting went. I know Nittany White Out already has their picks up, and I believe there was some sort of disagreement betwixt us. When I got a text from Champ saying "rant up" I went immediately to the basement to wait out the storm. I should make it clear that Beauford made the picks that went into the voting, with some help from Champ. So the following are not Champ's picks, FWIW.

Beauford's Picks:

1 - Ohio State
Sometimes, stereotypes exist because they're true. Sometimes, the majority is right because they're right - and there's no sense in playing the contrarian. In this case, Ohio State has, by far, the most talented team of anybody in the Big Ten and, IMO, the only team capable of competing for a National Title. On paper - which is the only thing we have to go on at this point - Ohio State should go undefeated in conference. I haven't done the Ridiculously Early Preview on them yet - but I would imagine that "trouble games" exist at Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Do they play Wisconsin this year?

2 - Wisconsin
This was a toss up between Penn State and Wisconsin. My reason for choosing Wisconsin was really foolishly simple: I compared schedules. Penn State's gotta play @ Wisky, @ Ohio State, while Wisconsin gets those games at home. The toughest road test the Badgers are going to face is probably @ Michigan, and with the season Michigan's predicted to have, that formarly ensconsed "L" becomes a toss-up leaning towards Badgers. When the dust settles, the most interesting game in the Big Ten this year may very well be that Oct. 11th rumble between Penn State and Wisconsin.

3 - Penn State
See above

4 - Michigan
5 - Michigan State
6 - Northwestern

Here's my rationale: Michigan State is probably better than Michigan this year. On paper. I know that I said that paper is the only thing we have to go on, but that doesn't apply for Michigan State. You see, we make up the rules as we go here... The problem is that Michigan State is still Michigan State, despite hiring a coach that looks like Belechik and glares alot. The end result for the Spartans last year was...the same as it always is: one game within .500, a demoralizing loss to Big Brother, and a bowl defeat. Every year I pen Michigan State as being vastly improved, capable of challenging for the Big Ten, and probable winners against Michigan. Every year, I'm elated at the results (which are pretty much the exact opposite of my predictions). This year, every one of the aforementioned rings true. They should be improved (see Hoyer and Receiving Corp), they should present as much a challenge to Ohio State as anybody, and they should beat Michigan. But I'm tired of getting burned on that - so until they prove to me otherwise, Michigan State will be a middle of the road Big Ten team incapable of beating quality opponents in conference. I'm begging the Spartans to prove me wrong.

Call it homerism for my honorary favorite team this year, or call it a favor to this blog's only friend Lake the Posts, but I am buying the idea that this year's Wildcats can make some noise. For many of the reasons Champ outlined in his preview, I don't think they will challenge for the title, but I do expect them to beat some teams that they traditionally don't (including Michigan?). They've got to get better at scoring points, and they've got to shore up their defense, especially line-play. Hopefully two new coordinators can accomplish that. Northwestern gets themselves bowl eligible, and there is much celebrating in Evanston this year.

Which brings us to Michigan. Here is why I believe Michigan is not this year's Notre Dame:

1) Notre Dame has been mediocre-to-bad the past decade. Sure, they had a good stretch there with Brady Quinn's senior season, but a closer look at said season reveals a lot of smoke and mirrors. Their schedule that year was brutally easy, with losses coming to Michigan and USC - the two quality opponents they faced. The schallacking they took at the hands of LSU in the Sugar Bowl was a surprise to no one paying attention. Every time Notre Dame has had to reload, they've failed miserably.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been good-to-great the past decade, proving time and again that the talent that Carr recruits is capable of stepping in and filling holes left by departing players. When Henson jilted the team in favor of Baseball, and a half-cocked Navarre had to step in, Michigan still went 8-4. Navarre ended up breaking several passing records en route to a career only remembered as mediocre. When he was done, it was Henne for 4 years. The line of skill positions that have follwed the "had success, graduated/drafted, then been replaced with success" time-line is non-stop. The hiccup with an unseasoned Navarre is the best example that I can think of of a player stepping into a skill position and sucking for a year. Receivers, tailbacks, and (by and large) quarterbacks have been one star after another for as long as I can remember. Non-skill positions tend to be harder to judge, but even when Michigan has had to replace entire defenses, the results have been bowl-eligible 8 to 9 win teams. This has not been the case at Notre Dame: see Jimmy Clausen's efforts this past year, or their attempts at replacing their running back who bolted early. If Lloyd Carr was coaching this team, you would have them penned for another 8 win season. Just because Rodriguez doesn't have the exact personel to run "his offense" doesn't mean the talent isn't there to run "an offense" capable of winning.

Plain and simple: Michigan has proven they can weather the storm when it comes to replacing graduating/drafted players. Notre Dame has not.

2) Notre Dame's coaching has been suspect at best. Despite the blinding light off of Weis's multiple super-bowl rings (and the subsequent reflection from the fried chicken grease on his chin), the man has done virtually nothing in terms of beating top-notch oppoenents during his tenure at ND. He came to ND unproven, and is rapidly proving himself to be a bad head coach. Rodriguez may be untested at Michigan, but he is at least a proven collegiate head coach with a track record of success.

3) The cupboard is not bare at UM. When Rodriguez took over the program at WVU, he was working with athletes who were mostly passed on by big-time programs. It took him a few years to build up the base of players that he could work with, which explains his dismal first-year records. I will wager that the level of athlete that he is inheriting at UM - previous starter or not - is far higher than what he inherited at WVU. Thus, I believe that this team will be ready to compete at a higher level than many think this year.

4) Michigan had moderate to great success running zone-left long bomb offense. They never had to get tricky because they didn't have to. Now, with the departures on offense and defense, Michigan has to get tricky, and they have the best coach in the game at doing that. Combine Rodriguez's willingness to run plays not designed around a punishing left tackle with the fact that nobody has any film or any clue about what this team is going to look like, and you get a lot of surprised opponents. I fully expect Michigan to lose their fair share of ball games this year, but I also expect that they will catch quite a few teams with their pants down. Everybody and their mother knew what ND was going to come with last year - and ND played the part beautifully. Nobody knows what Michigan's coming with this year, which is an advantage.

5) We've got Vegas on our side! The folks who are actually paid to make predictions with millions riding on them say that there are only 9 teams with better odds at a National Championship than Michigan. That's right folks, they said National.

Also - Michigan gets Sparty, Northwestern, and Illinois at home.

7 - Illinois

Speaking of Illinois, I think that they will be a dangerous team, but that the loss of Mendenhall is going to hurt a ton. Juice can't throw; it's that simple. If the Illini can't produce a consistantly awesome rusher to replace Mendenhall, then I can't see how that offense is going to score points. Mix that with an already shaky defense losing an awesome 'backer, and a competent safety (Kevin Mitchell), and throw in a dose of suspect in game coaching of the Zooker, and you get a 7th place Big Ten team. The Illini may still have some shine to them from last year's Rose Bowl team, and I think the BTB final vote reflects that shine. The Illini won't suck this year - but they will take a step backwards.

8 - Purdue
There isn't much to say here. Tiller's last season, and "meh" collection of players coming of a mediocre season last year, etc. Purdue will beat the low-end Big 10 teams, and will lose to the top-end. In full disclosure, there wasn't a whole lot going on mentally when I slotted Purdue in at 8th.

9 - Iowa
With apologies to BHGP, I don't see this year's Iowa squad as contending for anything this year. Depending on their OOC results, they could get themselves bowl eligible, and (in hindsight) are probably deserving of a better showing than 9th.

10 - Minnesota
They were a frieght train of suck last year, and I don't expect this year to be much different. Next year, you could see them sneaking up into the middle of the conference given the mildly awesome level of recruiting they've been able to sustain. But not this year.

11 - Indiana
Loss of top flight talent? Check
Potential loss of field-equalizing QB? Check
Last place finish in the Big 10? Check


Wrap Up

We weren't really that much different than the combined results. We seem to be in disagreement about Illinois and Michigan, but other than those two, we seem to be right on the mainstream money. Tomorrow, I'll have a post comparing our little vote to those of the MSM and preview mags.

I object

Opinions are funny things, and naturally you'll always hear that someone else's opinion is just as valid as yours or mine... this of course is not true. I have no problem with a dissenting opinion or point of view. What I do have a problem with is when said argument is devoid of any sort of attempt at presenting the information used to draw out the conclusions that were reached. I am more than happy to engage in a discussion and even reconsider my stance, just present your points of view in a way that has some sort of logical backing behind them. Absolute statements made without such backing fall into a different category. That said, the following deserves a few words presented in a calm fashion...:

From Nittany White Out:
Michigan will be beaten and beaten badly this season. For years Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr’s impeccable coaching. This is not to say Rich Rod can’t coach. But he simply doesn’t have the players to run his offense. Sure he’ll modify it this year to fit his players, but if history repeats itself, his first year will be dismal. And to the delight of all Big Ten teams, Michigan will struggle. Michigan will be last season’s Notre Dame.

Can you honestly tell me with confidence that they can even win all their non-conference games? With Utah, and Notre Dame (away), the odds are in favor of a 2-2 start before they even start their conference gauntlet. Then there are revenge games away at Penn State, at Purdue, a vastly improved Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. If you look at their schedule, only 3 games can be considered a sure win, Miami (OH), Toledo and Northwestern.

The 2008 season will be sweet music to all Big Ten fans not sporting Maize and Blue.

Now then, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion on this year's Wolverines... what I take issue with here is the ridiculous litany of "points" that are thrown out here sans defense, logic, or any identifiable level of reason. All this "breakdown" does is trot out a number of phrases, talking points, and whimsical notions that have been echoed around rival message boards ever since Rodriguez was announced as the new HC. Let's take them in order shall we?

1. For years Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr’s impeccable coaching. This is missing the forest for a single tree. I said in the comments section over there that I'm was as big of a Lloyd Carr supporter as you could find during his tenure in Ann Arbor. He deserves a LOT of credit, but the main reason why Michigan has been winning football games has been his impeccable coaching? The man was a solid football coach and even greater person, he will go down as one of the greats who have roamed the sidelines in the Big House. But to claim that Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr's coaching? Certainly his ability as a head coach was a large factor in Michigan's Big 10 success... but uh, there are a few other points to take into account here as well. For one, I think Carr's management of his talent had a much larger effect than his gameplanning or x's and o's prowess did.

I highly doubt anyone would argue that Carr-lead Michigan teams' success had nothing to do with his recruiting, which coincidentally brought in more talent than other teams in the conference could dream of having (save for that one down Columbus way of course), it probably had nothing to do with the fact that Michigan was a better football team across the field than nearly everyone else they lined up with, and I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that there has been a long-running tradition of a top level program, which affords it the ability to recruit, gather quality staffs (even if Malone, DeBord, or Andy Moeller were members...), and build from a very strong base. Michigan has not only been fortunate to have a run of great coaches, but we also have been spoiled rotten with the level of football player that we bring in year in and year out... more on that in a bit. To say we won only because of Lloyd Carr's coaching ability is quite simply wrong.

2. But he simply doesn’t have the players to run his offense. Sure he’ll modify it this year to fit his players, but if history repeats itself, his first year will be dismal. Sigh... I nailed this in the preview on "things people will beat to death and be way off base about" and here's example 1A. Sure he'll modify it to fit his players... and if you'd care to tell me how the caliber of player he had at West Virginia, Tulane, and Glenville State compares to that which he is now working with in Ann Arbor, I will happily sit here and listen. Michigan beat a number of teams over the years by running HB traps to the left and occasionally find one of a long line of great receivers deep (oversimplifying a bit for the sake of brevity)... the offense doesn't have to be amazingly complex or mind bendingly difficult to succeed, in fact if you'd like a beautiful example, I direct your attention to last years contest between #10 Penn State and the lowly unranked Wolverines... final score? 14-9 Michigan. Not exactly an offensive firework show was it... and a true freshman qb at the helm no less.

Rodriguez has been around the block, he'll put something in place that will enable this team to play to its strengths. Why everyone is so convinced that because Michigan won't run the "Pat White Steve Slayton" offense next year that they are in huge trouble is beyond me, Rodriguez ran an effective offense with Sean King winging the ball all over the place, and he ran one that whipped the life out of opponents by throwing less than 20 times a game, he's clearly able to adjust to his personnel, but hey, that's inconvienant to this flawed argument. We're all well aware of his first year record at West Virginia and Glenville State, etc, etc, but to try to compare his first year at WVA with what he's working with here is a bit of a stretch if you were to ask me. What his success in these different systems does tell me is that he WILL get his play-makers the football, and believe me when I say that we will have more than one or two players who will be capable of making plays.

The second part of this is the notion that because the offense likely may struggle at times, Michigan is doomed. This might be the case if the defense were going to be of the 2000 vintage... but that simply will not be the case. The Maize and Blue won't have to score 35 points a game to win. Of course it'd probably help to actually, you know, look at the team you're talking about to realize points like that.

3. Michigan will be last seasons Notre Dame. Based upon what? Michigan lost a number of top offensive skill players like ND did two years ago? That's where any and all comparisons stop beween these two teams. The coaching staffs couldn't be more different in terms of both track record and ability, the recruiting classes compared over the past four years are vastly different, the schedules for the upcoming year are different, and the makeup of this year's Michigan squad compared to last year's notre dame edition is also vastly different. Quick name last year's starting running back for ND... does he even crack our top 5 heading into this season? How about their top receiver.... and on, and on, and on.

4. Can you honestly tell me with confidence that they can even win all their non-conference games? With Utah, and Notre Dame (away), the odds are in favor of a 2-2 start before they even start their conference gauntlet. 2-2 would be something close to a worst case scenario to start the season as I look at the teams we're facing... but hey, "the odds favor it"... which means precisely nothing. Nothing in the way of matchups, breakdowns, or other places where any of these teams might give Michigan problems. Utah will be a tough test, as will ND as the first road game, are theses sure wins? No. Are they sure losses? No.

5. Then there are revenge games away at Penn State, at Purdue, a vastly improved Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. Ah yes, the "revenge game"... this is as true a barometer of an upcoming season as any. I love the argument that teams will be excited to beat Michigan this season... really?? That's different from every other season how exactly? It's really helped Penn State out a bunch since '96 hasn't it, every time our two teams have lined up since then hasn't been a "revenge game" for the Nittany Lions? Next of course is the "vastly improved MSU" (in what way are they vastly improved?)... which just so happens to have to travel to Michigan Stadium where, vastly improved or not, they haven't won since 1990... which is a vast expanse of time.

I've longed learned the hard lesson of trying to determine "sure wins" and you know what, the same holds for "sure losses". For anyone to try to claim that Michigan will be doomed to a 9th place conference finish and a record that one must reach back to 1967 to find another in the same ball park (4-6) with nothing more substantial than talking head sound bites and message board banter is just a bit laughable... add to the fact that it is June, and it's even more laughable. Call me old fashioned, but examining trends and matchups certainly carries more weight than trying to judge a team's "revenge factor" against its opponent.

So in short, we're in trouble because:
1. Rodriguez can't possibly run "his" offense (nevermind that this "argument" completely ignores 2/3rds of the game of football and fails to present any sort of actual attempt at defending these kinds of predictions, it sounds good and everyone else is saying it too!).
2. Other teams will want to beat Michigan really bad... which is news to exactly no one.

How very illuminating...

Michigan may very well struggle this season, nobody knows how we'll look come the end of August, which makes absolute statements about the upcoming season altogether misguided. Particularly when such absolute statements don't do anything like the following: "I think a lack of an experienced quarterback combined with the installation of a new system will really hinder Michigan's offensive efforts this year, this could spell trouble in a number of matchups, including...blah, blah, blah and so on."

I am not stating that Michigan will be great or even good, I don't KNOW what they will be, but to deny that there's a chance that they will be anything other than downright terrible (and the Nittany Whiteout prediction is the bottom of downright terrible) is pretty bold at this point in the year. To attribute said terrible-ness (English is a generative language after all) all to a struggle on offense is just a bit too much for my taste.

Michigan: The Preview

Champ came through in the clutch last week - delivering his opus on Michigan a mere two days before taking the plunge into holy matrimony. As a participant of the ceremonies, let me say that it takes a man of extraordinary fortitude to convince his bride that Led Zeppelin is indeed "first dance" worthy. Champ pulled it off; the legend grows.


It is surprising, sitting back having completed the preview, that this one turned out to be the hardest (thus far) to write. I thought to myself going into this that surely my knowledge of Michigan's roster, returning players, and traditions would allow me to crank out this post in a matter of 15 minutes. I was wrong primarily because nobody, and I mean nobody, knows what Michigan is going to look like when they take the field against Utah. Will they come out doing a classic run and shoot? Will they be running a spread out pro-formation? Will the quarterback be wearing pants?

Usually, these questions have been answered by years and years of tradition mostly involving off tackle running on 3rd and 12. The questions were slightly less...shall we say...large?...in scope. They were not "what the hell are they going to do on offense." Rather, they were "how are these next batch of stars going to function?" This season, they don't have stars, they don't have off-tackle runs (well...maybe a few) and they most importantly don't have Lloyd Carr walking the sidelines in his ball cap with his hands in his back pockets. That, I suppose, is the crux of why this particular preview is/was so difficult to write. Everything I knew about Michigan football came while Lloyd was in charge. Now, I start from scratch.


How I wish...How I wish you were here...

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off base:
The lack of the true spread quarterback is something that you will not forget unless Michigan starts rolling up 500+ yards per game under Threet, a dubious prospect under even the best conditions. People seem to have the impression that Rodriguez is a one trick pony, and without Pat White mounted firmly in the saddle, his offense will be a complete fail. I do not agree. There is no way that Rodriguez has gotten to the pinnacle of college coaching without knowing a little something about everything. He is going to play the hand that he has been dealt - and if that means running Threet in a pro-style offense, then that's what he will do.

Direct from the horses mouth:

"Any coach will tell you, whether you have extremely talented guys or not, when you don't have experience at that position, it's cause for concern. So, there's going to be concern for us at any position that (we) don't have experience, in particular, at quarterback. We don't have anybody that's taken a snap in college football. So going through spring practice, we've got to have that in mind, and certainly as we prepare for the fall, we've got to have that in mind.

"You know there's no substitute for experience, but those guys are working hard, they're learning, and we're going to have to fit our offense to whoever our quarterback's skill sets are. And that I don't yet until I go through practice. But it's a concern. I don't want people to think it ain't a concern because it is – you don't have anybody that's taken a snap. But those guys will work hard and we'll try to get'em ready."

That doesn't sound to me like a guy who is convinced that he's gotta have a Pat White clone to be successful. The media will harp on the fact that Threet is a ghost white statue in the pocket, and if the Michigan offense even sniffs fail at any point, their main point of blame will be the fact that Threet is not Patrick White. They should be blaming the execution of the players on the field, not the non-existence of a certain type of player at quarterback. The Michigan offense may very well fail next year, but it won't be because Rodriguez is jamming a square peg in a round hole at Quarterback.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success:
This is very simple, and Champ hit it on the head. The defense will be at least above average next year, with the potential to be very good. Last season, the young unit ranked 4th in scoring and 3rd in total defense in the Big Ten. The line has gotten better, the corners are older, and the linebacking crew is raw but athletic. Add in a year of being Barwisized, and you have the potential for this defense to be shut-down. And the Wolverines are going to need it to be just that if they hope to compete. Rodriguez is lauded as an offensive mastermind, so it is fittingly ironic that his first season at Michigan will rely heavily on a stout defense to be successful.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball:

Offense: Man, I just don't know. At this point, I don't even know what the offense is going to look like, let alone who the most important contributer will be. As long as the QB puts on his pants before the game, he'll probably end up being the guy here, but really, it could be any number of players. Will McGuffie be as electric in college as he was in High School? Will Carlos Brown get the ball in space and be a little bottle of lightening? Will Threet zing in all over the field like Henne did against the Gators? Who will be the deep threat? Will Michigan even throw the ball? Ever? I just don't know.

Defense: Here, I differ from Champ. It's not so much that I disrespect line play, but I find it difficult to single out one guy on the defensive line and say "that's gonna be the guy who will make a difference." Sure, Lamarr Woodley was a freight train loaded with bee-hives against Notre Dame his senior year - almost singlehandedly destroying the willpower of the tackle, quarterback, or whoever else had the misfortune of getting in his way. Do I think that Graham could be that player? Maybe. What is more likely (and ultimately more successful) is the line gels together as a unit, and is able to wreak havoc that way. I think that is a much more reasonable goal for this unit than the one-man standout show. To put it in NFL terms, I think this unit (at their best) could more resemble the Giants in the Superbowl, rather than Dwight Freeney and a bunch of other dudes trying to occupy blockers.

I will go with Morgan Trent here for several reasons.

1) Cornerback is the most difficult position on the field to play. You are an island half the time, and the other half (if you play for Michigan...) safety help isn't coming anytime soon.

2) If there is anyone on this team with Ess-Eee-See speed, it's Morgan.

3) He's a senior, and building off a season in which he tied for 5th in passes defended with 10, intercepted 2 passes, and ran faster than Percy Harvin in the bowl game:



He is already a leader on the defense, and I really believe he will wrap up his collegiate career with style befitting the bevy of cornerbacks to have played at Michigan.

Area that scares you as an opponent:
Champ hit it on the head. I don't know if there is any one feature of this team that will scare you - rather, it's the fact that nobody knows what the hell Rodriguez is going to do, and you can't defend what you don't know. The Utah defensive coordinator is going to have fits trying to decide how to gameplan for Michigan.

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent:
If you're Penn State, or Purdue, or Northwestern this is your chance to kick Michigan in the teeth. This year is probably the worst Michigan is going to be for quite some time. I fully expect games in which Michigan just can't get the offense going, will turn the ball over 12 times, and will lose impressively. I'm ready for it. Youth be damned, it's like the whole offense is starting from scratch, and that's going to have a lot of growing pains associated with it. If I'm an opponent, I'm salivating at the rather good chance that Michigan is going to look more like this



than this



Random factor that you think will come into play this season:
How much will Rodriguez use a guy in a "Tebow" fashion? I think at this point that it's a given that Threet is the starter, but will Feagin come in to run gadget plays? What percentage of those plays will be designed runs, options, etc. Will he ever throw the ball? How Rodriguez manages the quarterback situation, which is already tenuous at best, will be the x factor of this season.

Overall Record:
Actual transcription of text messages between Champ and I as he wrote his preview:

Champ: This Michigan preview is hard to write...I hate trying to predict the records...I may cop out of that portion if you don't care
B2: No copping out! Everyone who reads us, all 12 of them, knows you're a Michigan guy. Go ahead, be optimistic. Remember you're accountable at the end of it all though...
Champ: Fair enough. It's up, and it's long.

Champ was optimistic, and he picked 9 wins. Just to be on a level field, for as long as I've known Champ, he's predicted 11 wins minimum. This year he picked 9, which makes me think that Michigan may be in trouble. I have Michigan down for a 6-6 record this year, with losses coming against the following teams:

Utah
Wisconsin
Illinois
@ Penn State
@ Purdue
@ Ohio State

You could easily substitute Utah with Michigan State, and still come out with the same record.

Please do not hang me, Michigan faithful, for this season, we know not what awaits us. This prediction is as good as dog shit on your front porch - which is to say that it stinks, and you never really wanted it anyways. We will all have a much better idea of where Michigan is going to fall when the season actually starts. For now, I guess I'm captaining up the HMS Pessimistic - all aboard for Ann Arbor.

3-5 in the Big Ten? Ouch.

Bowl Game Destination:
Michigan is an attractive bowl team, which means with 6 wins they'll end up playing in a better bowl than they should. However, it will probably be closer to Thanksgiving than New Years, and against a MAC team with a chip on their shoulder.

God knows, I hope I'm wrong. And please, Michigan fans, put down the tar and feathers. I'm only one guy...

Meeeechigan 2008

Alright full disclosure: I’m a dyed in the wool Michigan fan; however, I do not find myself to be the “OMG GO BLUE!!1!!!1 everyone else suxzores” type of obnoxious fan that B2 alluded to, perhaps I am mistaken, do inform me if need be. I am biased, but I will do my best to explain my points of view on the team and back them up with [gasp] reason and logic [/gasp]. You won’t see me creating national title shirts prior to a season (AHEM like a certain Michigan blogger who shall remain nameless but deserves to have a plot in the Steve Bartman HOF). Disagree with something I have to say? Comment away dear reader, comment away.

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off base – Wooo boy, what WON’T the media harp on and in an off-base fashion? If it has the words “Rodriguez” “Offense” and/or “Spread” in it, then it’s likely off-base, and it will likely be beat like a drum to the tune of “CRAIG KRENZEL TAKES MOLECULAR GENETICS!!!! DREW HENSON PLAYS BASEBALL!!!!! THE SSSSS EEEEE SEEEE IS AMAZING!!” type of level. You’ve been forewarned… oh oh and West Virginia in any context will likely be mentioned ad nauseum. Also, if I have to hear one more time about how the entire offense won’t work because Threet doesn’t run a 4.4 40… I may snap. There’s a bevy of topics to pick from here, and even the harshest critics have to admit that Michigan certainly is the most intriguing storyline in the Big 10 right now. This naturally means way too much exposure and way too much focus that will undoubtedly carry through the season. You’ve been warned.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success – Well so far that would be anything that has to do with the defensive side of the football. You won’t hear the media harp on the returners on the D-line or our two stellar corners who are returning, nor will you hear about the talent stepping into more prominent roles in the line-backing corps (Ezeh will become a much more familiar name by the season’s end). For something as cliché and well known as “defense wins championships” the defense that’s assembling in Ann Arbor hasn’t gotten a lick of a mention thus far. Here’s a little secret, they’re going to be good.

The second part of this is talent. All we’ve heard about thus far is how much Michigan lost on the offense… and hey, no bones about it, we lost a lot, but uh, guess what, there’s more to come and step into those vacated roles. The Wolverines haven’t been slacking in the recruiting department, and solid classes from the past several years will be joined by a heck of an incoming freshman class where a number of guys will likely challenge for playing time right away. No one has mentioned how much IS there. The team will be young, but it still rolls out more talent than every team in the Big 10 save for one… count the number of times THAT gets mentioned this year. Most Michigan fans will tell you that the issue has not really been talent over the years, it’s been how that talent has been utilized… and that will most assuredly change heading into this season.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball – Without a doubt this is the offensive line. I know, I know, DUH, but I have to go with them here. If Michigan is going to have success offensively this season, then the offensive group up front will have to gel quickly and give Threet some time and the stable (and holy cow what a stable) of running backs some lanes to run in. It’s hard to imagine that Michigan would lose the number one pick in the draft and actually become better, but I don’t think they’re going to lose as much ground as some make it out to be. Aside from the excellence of Long, the rest of the line was decidedly “MEH”. The other losses aren’t going to be as big of an impact as outside observers are assuming, and the way things are shaping up, Michigan will roll out 4 red-shirt juniors on the line… not exactly a rag tag bunch of green-horns.

On the defense I have to go with Brandon Graham. Graham has the ability to become a LaMarr Woodley type of player on the D-line and could be one of the keys to an experienced front four getting consistent pressure and creating mismatches at the line of scrimmage.

Destroyer of backfields

Area that scares you as an opponent – The unknown. Every Michigan opponent this season is getting a team they have never seen before. This isn’t going to be the “first down draws to the left behind Long 80% of the time and not kill you with its offensive weapons until they absolutely must” or the “throw the 2-yard WR screen on 3^rd and 7” type of Michigan team that opponents have counted on year after year. The game-planning will be different, the play-calls will be different, and oh, oh yes, the players themselves will be different. Count me as a member of the “eeeeeeee Barwis!” club, I cannot wait to see these guys take the field come the fall: speed, speed, and more speed. The thought of Michigan’s talent with space to operate is a scary proposition indeed, and Rodriguez will undoubtedly bring a level of aggression that this team (depending on whom you talk to) may or may not have been lacking over the past several seasons. Watch how much they try to get guys like Matthews, Stonum, Brown, Minor, McGuffie (droooooool), Shaw, and others the football in space… Michigan will have a number of real burners that will likely get the ball in much better shape than Steve Breaston could’ve ever dreamed of.

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent – Youth. Michigan’s QB will be someone who has never taken a collegiate snap as a starter. The receiving corps is also young, the line will feature new faces in new positions, and there will be freshmen getting significant playing time at various spots across the field. There will be miscues, there will be freshman mistakes, and there will be head-slapping moments. The way that teams are going to play the Wolverines early, and the way I’d game plan for them right now, would be to stack the line and force the quarterback to make plays by bringing pressure, if Threet crumbles or the o-line is anything resembling the version we saw against the Buckeyes last year, then you’ll see many Michigan fans screaming eeeek and covering their eyes.

Random factor that you think will come into play this season – I’m taking liberty here and mentioning a few… first and foremost is the D, I love how it looks right now, it could become a force, but I will be stunned if it is anything short of very solid. Secondly, Threet (or whomever will be the QB, some seem to think Feagan may have a shot, I am not one of those people) won’t have to win games on his own. Much will be made about the lack of experience on offense and the “new system” being brought in. What will be missed is that Rodriguez will tailor the system to the players he has. You won’t be seeing a Pat White offense next year. You’ll see one that maximizes the talents of the players that are on the field, Michigan will run the football and they will use their mix of receivers to spread the field to open it up for the backs.

I think you’ll see a return of the screen (something we used to run to perfection) to the attack, and a lot of plays designed to give Threet easy and simple reads (think Tom Brady when he first started with the Patriots). Michigan simply needs the QB to be able to manage the football game and not make huge mistakes. The Wolverines are flat out LOADED in the backfield and will once again bring a number of solid receivers into the mix. They will not have to fling the football all over the field to move the chains, nor will they have to score 40 points a game to have a chance to win. For all of the hyperbole about how bad the offense could be, it won’t have to be a showstopper for the team to have a shot, and for the most part I think that is something that many out there are overlooking right now. Michigan has recruited VERY well over the years, the names won’t be as familiar, but you’ll know them by the end of the fall.

Overall Record – Yeegads, anyone who knows me knows that I HATE predicting my own team’s record… you always get blasted and there is no middle ground. This team could legitimately cover quite the spectrum… they could be downright terrible or they could be surprisingly good, and none of us has any iota of a clue what they will look like when they tee that ball up for opening kick come late August. Naturally this means predicting the records at this point is even harder than usual, that is to say it’s impossible. First clue to our random guessing game would be to examine the road contests: these include trips to South Bend, Penn State, Purdue, Minnesota, and oh yeah, a little date in Columbus at the end of the year.

Penn State will be frothing at the mouth… again… like always… but as long as JoePa is at the helm in Happy Valley, I’m going to be confident heading into that tilt. Purdue actually scares me a bit, don’t laugh. They will return a number of players and they have given Michigan FITS in West Lafayette recently. Although I didn’t see a whole lot in the Boilermakers last year that has me trembling about this upcoming season, I think they’ll be more than ready when Michigan heads to Ross Ade. The Buckeyes stand every chance of being a ridiculous football team this year, and that game in Columbus will be a MONSTER of a challenge, to count on a win there would be sheer lunacy, but anyone who knows this series at all knows that Michigan will be ready to play come November 22nd. I don’t think it’s completely unreasonable to see the Wolverines coming out of their road schedule with a record of 3-2.

Home tilts feature Utah (not quite the creampuff you might want to see in the opener… of course after last year, nobody is a creampuff… sigh), Wisconsin, Illinois and those pesky Michigan State Spartans. Michigan hasn’t dropped four games at home since 1967, and since 1995 has put up a decent record of 74-12 (that’s a pretty solid 86% clip). Michigan Stadium might not be a decibel beast, but the Wolverines have defended their home turf rather well over the years and so I’m going to lean hard on home field advantage here. Michigan’s defense will keep this team in games this season, and there just aren’t many offenses on the schedule that give one pause when staring 5 or 6 months down the line. I’ll set the bar on the higher end and say 6-1, giving us an overall record of 9-3.

Final Big Ten Standing – This one is tough, I have to put a chill in my heart and count the Buckeyes as the better football team, so there’s one… Illinois and Michigan State are the “punchers chance” teams that we’ve already discussed thus far, but with both games coming at home I think Michigan will be able to take care of business. Wisconsin will be solid again and I’m calling that a toss-up and likely our toughest home game on paper right now, but it is the Big 10 opener, where Michigan has been otherworldly good over the years, so keep that in mind. Somewhere in those three games Michigan might stumble, so we’ll go with one L out of those 3. Penn State fans are already beating their chests about this upcoming matchup, and that’s laughably premature, the Nittany Lions will likely be favored at home, but keep an eye on that October 17^th tilt. Penn State has more questions than they’d like you to know about and losing Sean Lee is a big blow to that defense, me thinks Michigan hangs tough in Happy Valley, JoePa has yet to prove that he can game plan against the Wolverines and I don’t expect that to change suddenly now. A defensive battle favors Michigan whether Bob Nittanylion fan thinks so or not. I don’t know why, but the Purdue game seems to be the one lurker to me that bugs me. It follows on the heels of the Penn State and Michigan State games and just seems to be the kind game that might jump up and bite a young team… call me somewhat concerned there.

After all that jabbering, I’ll go 5-3 in the Big 10; good enough for a possible top 3? Opposing Big 10 teams are licking their chops now, but I’m telling you that many are going to get a lot more than their fans are bargaining for at this point in time. The defense will give the young offense ample time to find its feet and keep the pressure of having to score every time it touches the ball far away. Rich Rodriguez CAN coach, the guy knows what he’s doing, and despite the pedantic defamation of the guy’s character by many (I’m sure all are well versed on the situation and its various intricacies), I don’t see a whole lot of people out there questioning his coaching ability.

Bowl Game Destination – 9-3 would bring another New Year’s Day bowl of lesser distinction and be a colossal upset to the Kirk Herbstreits and Beano Cooks of the world… and a tremendous smile across the face of yours truly. Optimistic? You bet your ass, but that’s how I roll.

GO BLUE!

Preview to the Preview: Michigan

A Caveat:

As stated numerous times, I, Beauford Bixel, am a Michigan fan. I also try my hardest not to use this space to yell GO BLUE OMG!!1!1 That, after all, is Champ's job. Please read the following ridiculously early previews bearing this in mind. On with the show.


Did you guys hear about Michigan hiring some new coach? Yeah, it's been all over the news. [whisper] I think he's a Mexican [/whisper]. Anyways, he runs this new fangled offense that only works in high schools. Yeah - so much for Michigan even sending anyone without a pot/drug/gun/stripper/dolla billz y'all problem to the NFL. It's sad really. Did you hear about his morals? Yeah, he boils babies. No, really, he just puts 'em in big pots of water and boils them. For fun. You know what he uses as firewood? Stacks of money he owes West Virginia. What a jerk. It's just too bad that Michigan had to lower their moral expectations for this guy.

This is the typical thought process from Ohio State fans when asked about Rodriguez. Maybe not the baby part; I got a little carried away...but still, the overwhelming reaction to Rodriguez's hiring by those in the Big Ten facing the prospect of playing him every year has been...less than pleasant. If you can stand anonymous Buckeyes wielding keyboards, float on over to Bucknut's discussion board and ask about Rodriguez. You'll get an earful, I guarentee you.

And you know what? They may be right. We don't know much about Rodriguez. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, at least until his teams actually play, but honestly, the jury should still be out on him. His coaching skills can only be questioned by those wearing the largest of tin-foil hats, but his moral and personal skills? Eh. Who knows? What I do know is that his offense at WVU has been set to kill since he got there, and his S&C program kicks the shit out of anything that Michigan has done since Bo's arrival. The rest? I'll leave that to Bucknutters and GO BLUE OMG!!1!1 types to debate.

2007 Season in One Word:


Shoe: Meet Nuts...


...Both Nuts

Ouch. The whole season was just one long "ouch." You know how you can get hit in the balls by, like, a basketball? But it only hits one, and mostly just missed? So the pain just kind of creeps up into your stomach, but you can keep playing ball, because really it's not that bad? Appalachian State wasn't even close to that. Appalachian State came right up to the toughest kid on the playground, and kicked them square in the balls. There was no halfsies about it - a small tennis shoe squarely planted on both nuts dropped Michigan to the floor before Oregon came over and kicked them in the jaw. After that, Michigan fought the rest of the season as best they could - with stomach pain and a broken face against kids who had waited a long time to see Michigan on their knees. Henne and Hart were Hobbled (yay alliteration!) for the majority of games played, and had it not been for heroic efforts from Henne during the Illinois and Michigan State games, this season would have been amongst the worst in recent memory. Then salvation came against Florida, when Michigan finally roared out to a 41-35 beating of Florida, complete with Heisman winner, M.D., and super hero Tim Tebow. Coach Carr hung up the whistle immediately following the game.

2008 Tangibles:

Schedule:

8/30 Utah
9/06 Miami (OH)
9/13 @ Notre Dame
9/27 Wisconsin
10/04 Illinois
10/11 Toledo
10/18 @ Penn State
10/25 Michigan State
11/01 @ Purdue
11/08 @ Minnesota
11/15 Northwestern
11/22 @ Ohio State

Coach:



Rich Rodriguez spreads it like butter. This is his first season as Wolverines head coach after thoroughly bitch-making the Big East. See beginning of post for more info.

Returning Playmakers:

Offensively, it's gone, baby, gaaaaooooone (emphasis added).

Tim Jamison, Brandon Graham, Donovan Warren, and Morgan Trent...wait a second...this could actually be a good defense! Hmmmmm....


Be prepared for a true supernova of a post from Champ forthcoming. It will probably melt your skin.

Beano Cook is Old

Prognostications in April are like farts in the wind: They don't stick, and they all stink. That being said, Beano Cook, who is SOMEHOW still around (if irrelevant) made an appearance on Colin Cowherd's radio show, where the conversation turned to Michigan. Convo detailed in the Freep here. For those disinclined to link out:

ESPN’s Beano Cook appeared on fellow ESPN personality Colin Cowherd’s radio show Wednesday afternoon.

The two got to talking about next year’s outlook for the Michigan football team. Below is an excerpt from their conversation:

Beano Cook: I had a couple people tell me that you predicted Michigan to be 6-6

Colin Cowherd: I think Michigan has quarterback issues next year.

BC: They also have offensive line (issues). When I first heard that, I said ‘Oh, Colin and the predictions. He’s wrong.’ But I think you might be right.

CC: I like them in two or three years. I think next year their schedule is brutal and they don’t have a quarterback. They don’t have a quarterback. You’ve gotta have a quarterback in college football.

BC: They also lost a lot of guys from the offensive line. I think you might be right. They play Notre Dame, but they have three other non-conference games and those games aren’t as tough and they’re in Ann Arbor. Again, 6-6 would be a big disappointment considering the Big Ten isn’t that tough and they only play eight conference games.

…

Later in the show, Cowherd talked about games he’s going to this fall. One of the contests he chose was the Michigan-Ohio State game. He had the following to say about the contest:
“Ohio State is going to kill them. It’s not going to be very competitive.”

So wait. Beano and Colin agree on something?

Come on people, rejoice! What's the exact opposite of a .500 record? 1.000 baby! Trust us, we had an Ohio State grad do the math. Walk on QB? Doesn't matter. You know the last time UM had a walk on? Brain Greise. Is that true? I don't even know! All I know is that Beano Cook hasn't been right about a prediction involving anything other than his morning bowel movement since 1932, and Cowherd (while entertaining) should be ignored at all times.

Michigan: Winnah!

To summarize, this video is how we're feeling:

OMG Recruit - Michigan Fan Style...

Champ Summers helps us out today, offering yet another insight into the maize and blue sections of the brain, which is located just left of the "I'm batshit crazy" section. Consume, dear reader, consume. I think I may actually weigh in on this one, because I think much of the Maize and Blue section in Champ's head is rationalizing the fact that this year's OMG recruit isn't going to be attending Michigan. Of course, just saying this will elicit some sort of snarky retort in the comments section. But...without further ado, I bring you Champ Summers:



I want to commit this to text right now, I want it written down somewhere for future reference, whether I am proven right by the course of time or proven to be a fool a few years down the road. Here it is, straight from a dyed in the wool Maize and Blue fan: I want absolutely no part of Terrelle Pryor, none, nada, zip. I’m tired of watching people make excuses for this kid because he has some serious potential on the gridiron. His act is tired, and as time marches onward, the red flags are starting to accumulate. It’s in times like these that people need to remember that one player will never be bigger than the team, let me go ahead and say that again: never. One of the things that I’ve always been proud of as a Michigan fan is that despite astronomical expectations, the program and the fan base have never been about win at all costs, and now is no time to start. I’m not saying that Pryor is a bad kid, I’m not trying to say that he will be bust, but there are too many signs and symptoms of a Mo-C type of situation here for my liking and folks, I don’t care if he beats Michigan four years in a row, I want no part of that humiliation. Bring up the name Maurice Clarett to any true Ohio State fan and watch their face contort in pain and anger, I want no part of that. The very fact that there is even a concern in that direction makes me want to simply walk away and pick up a very talented QB recruit next winter (which is a virtual lock at this point).

As I walk back along the timeline of Pryor’s recruitment, I find that it simply does not add up. For a player who was a virtual lock (according to a number of sources) to head to Columbus, why on earth has he not reached a decision yet? No one else finds it a bit odd that somehow, someway, nearly every other player who's going to be playing D1 football on scholarship managed to go ahead and figure out which school they'd like to attend despite what are no doubt very busy schedules?? But poor Terrelle Pryor plays basketball!!! You’re kidding? A high school football recruit who plays basketball?? When has that EVER happened before? How does he even find time to eat with that kind of schedule? Frankly I think the kids on the swim team at Jeannette High ought to seek out Mr. Pryor and one by one go over what their day-to-day schedule entails. I’m also not going to buy into the whole “huge magnitude of the decision” nonsense either. Guess what Terrelle, you knew that after this year, you'd be going to school, likely to play a sport of some nature, and perhaps in spite of all your time spent with your two sports that nearly EVERY talented highschool recruit participates in you should've set some time aside to decide a few things regarding your future. Now then, let’s say he was all set to make a decision and his father decided to nix it… does that make you feel any better about this whole mess? Me either.

Terrelle Pryor may or may not turn out to be a once in a great while type of college football player, but frankly, at this point, I don’t think he’s worth the gamble. It’s sad in a way, because now even if he somehow ends up at Michigan, the microscope will be on this guy from day one, and my anxiety level will be that much higher (selfish I know). I may end up eating these words, I may end up regretting the fact that I passed on the next great thing, or maybe I’ll be writing in this space in a few years about what a tremendous Michigan Man Terrelle Pryor has been and what his legacy will be… but standing here now, without the benefit of hindsight to aid me, can you honestly say you’d be all aboard for taking on this circus act? Not me, no thanks. I'll take a kid like Justin Feagin who's thrilled with the opportunity to play in Ann Arbor and certainly appears to have a good head on his shoulders… even though he may be rated as less talented. Why? Because it's about the team, the team, the team and thus far Terrelle Pryor has shown that he’s about nothing but me, me, me.

Champ. Out.